50% off is the regular price.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=Rt.66]”Most dismiss the idea that America could suffer the same fate as Japan, but some of the differences are overstated. For example, some claim that Japan’s bubble was much bigger than America’s. Yet average house prices nationwide rose by 90% in America between 2000 and 2006, compared with a gain of 51% in Japan between 1985 and early 1991, when Japanese home prices peaked.”

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=11964819

From a housing price stand piont, WE are in MUCH worse shape than Japan was.[/quote]

The particular chart used by the Economist in this is misleading. They use US housing prices, but they compare against Japan’s LAND prices (and land prices in Japan were, due to it being rather in short supply there, already sky high before the bubble).

This set of charts gives a much better overview of exactly how high Japan’s HOUSING prices got at the peak:

Comparing the US and Japanese Housing Bubbles

[Rt.66]

SDEngineer:

That chart is of questionable origins don’t you think? Its a bubble bloggers homemade chart from what I can see. Still, nationally it even shows Japans price run up was worse than ours.

Our RE bubble certainly includes land and also CR just like Japan’s bubble did. So if we could find a US chart that shows just land I’m guessing we’d have the a similar chart to the Economist’s chart.

[Rt.66]

SDEngineer:

That chart is of questionable origins don’t you think? Its a bubble bloggers homemade chart from what I can see. Still, nationally it even shows Japans price run up was worse than ours.

Our RE bubble certainly includes land and also CR just like Japan’s bubble did. So if we could find a US chart that shows just land I’m guessing we’d have the a similar chart to the Economist’s chart.

[Rt.66]

SDEngineer:

That chart is of questionable origins don’t you think? Its a bubble bloggers homemade chart from what I can see. Still, nationally it even shows Japans price run up was worse than ours.

Our RE bubble certainly includes land and also CR just like Japan’s bubble did. So if we could find a US chart that shows just land I’m guessing we’d have the a similar chart to the Economist’s chart.

[Rt.66]

SDEngineer:

That chart is of questionable origins don’t you think? Its a bubble bloggers homemade chart from what I can see. Still, nationally it even shows Japans price run up was worse than ours.

Our RE bubble certainly includes land and also CR just like Japan’s bubble did. So if we could find a US chart that shows just land I’m guessing we’d have the a similar chart to the Economist’s chart.

[Rt.66]

SDEngineer:

That chart is of questionable origins don’t you think? Its a bubble bloggers homemade chart from what I can see. Still, nationally it even shows Japans price run up was worse than ours.

Our RE bubble certainly includes land and also CR just like Japan’s bubble did. So if we could find a US chart that shows just land I’m guessing we’d have the a similar chart to the Economist’s chart.

[4plexowner]

the people that write about bubble psychology say that once a bubble pops the people will not re-enter that market for a full generation – ie, the no-longer-bubbly asset is not even considered as an investment possibility for a full generation at least

that would put the start of the next appreciation cycle in real estate around 2027 (20 years from peak) to 2047 (40 years from peak)

I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s papers looking in particular for his thoughts on real estate – he says earliest recovery is 4 years from peak which is 2011 – more likely is 10 years from peak which is 2017 – outside possibility is that real estate is NEVER again considered an investment

[google Martin Armstrong and you will find his works – eye opening the way he is being treated by our government – Kondratieff was put to death for the same accuracy in economic forecasting that Mr. Armstrong has demonstrated]

I believe that bubble psychology is worth giving some thought to when considering San Diego real estate prices – be careful comparing what happened from 1998 to 2007 to previous real estate cycles

~

before I started selling my rental units I researched all the real estate bears I could find (2002-2004 timeframe) – John Templeton was predicting as much as a 70% decline in US real estate values – his was the most bearish prediction I found

[4plexowner]

the people that write about bubble psychology say that once a bubble pops the people will not re-enter that market for a full generation – ie, the no-longer-bubbly asset is not even considered as an investment possibility for a full generation at least

that would put the start of the next appreciation cycle in real estate around 2027 (20 years from peak) to 2047 (40 years from peak)

I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s papers looking in particular for his thoughts on real estate – he says earliest recovery is 4 years from peak which is 2011 – more likely is 10 years from peak which is 2017 – outside possibility is that real estate is NEVER again considered an investment

[google Martin Armstrong and you will find his works – eye opening the way he is being treated by our government – Kondratieff was put to death for the same accuracy in economic forecasting that Mr. Armstrong has demonstrated]

I believe that bubble psychology is worth giving some thought to when considering San Diego real estate prices – be careful comparing what happened from 1998 to 2007 to previous real estate cycles

~

before I started selling my rental units I researched all the real estate bears I could find (2002-2004 timeframe) – John Templeton was predicting as much as a 70% decline in US real estate values – his was the most bearish prediction I found

[4plexowner]

the people that write about bubble psychology say that once a bubble pops the people will not re-enter that market for a full generation – ie, the no-longer-bubbly asset is not even considered as an investment possibility for a full generation at least

that would put the start of the next appreciation cycle in real estate around 2027 (20 years from peak) to 2047 (40 years from peak)

I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s papers looking in particular for his thoughts on real estate – he says earliest recovery is 4 years from peak which is 2011 – more likely is 10 years from peak which is 2017 – outside possibility is that real estate is NEVER again considered an investment

[google Martin Armstrong and you will find his works – eye opening the way he is being treated by our government – Kondratieff was put to death for the same accuracy in economic forecasting that Mr. Armstrong has demonstrated]

I believe that bubble psychology is worth giving some thought to when considering San Diego real estate prices – be careful comparing what happened from 1998 to 2007 to previous real estate cycles

~

before I started selling my rental units I researched all the real estate bears I could find (2002-2004 timeframe) – John Templeton was predicting as much as a 70% decline in US real estate values – his was the most bearish prediction I found

[4plexowner]

the people that write about bubble psychology say that once a bubble pops the people will not re-enter that market for a full generation – ie, the no-longer-bubbly asset is not even considered as an investment possibility for a full generation at least

that would put the start of the next appreciation cycle in real estate around 2027 (20 years from peak) to 2047 (40 years from peak)

I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s papers looking in particular for his thoughts on real estate – he says earliest recovery is 4 years from peak which is 2011 – more likely is 10 years from peak which is 2017 – outside possibility is that real estate is NEVER again considered an investment

[google Martin Armstrong and you will find his works – eye opening the way he is being treated by our government – Kondratieff was put to death for the same accuracy in economic forecasting that Mr. Armstrong has demonstrated]

I believe that bubble psychology is worth giving some thought to when considering San Diego real estate prices – be careful comparing what happened from 1998 to 2007 to previous real estate cycles

~

before I started selling my rental units I researched all the real estate bears I could find (2002-2004 timeframe) – John Templeton was predicting as much as a 70% decline in US real estate values – his was the most bearish prediction I found

[4plexowner]

the people that write about bubble psychology say that once a bubble pops the people will not re-enter that market for a full generation – ie, the no-longer-bubbly asset is not even considered as an investment possibility for a full generation at least

that would put the start of the next appreciation cycle in real estate around 2027 (20 years from peak) to 2047 (40 years from peak)

I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s papers looking in particular for his thoughts on real estate – he says earliest recovery is 4 years from peak which is 2011 – more likely is 10 years from peak which is 2017 – outside possibility is that real estate is NEVER again considered an investment

[google Martin Armstrong and you will find his works – eye opening the way he is being treated by our government – Kondratieff was put to death for the same accuracy in economic forecasting that Mr. Armstrong has demonstrated]

I believe that bubble psychology is worth giving some thought to when considering San Diego real estate prices – be careful comparing what happened from 1998 to 2007 to previous real estate cycles

~

before I started selling my rental units I researched all the real estate bears I could find (2002-2004 timeframe) – John Templeton was predicting as much as a 70% decline in US real estate values – his was the most bearish prediction I found

[Rt.66]

SDEngineer:

I just found this concerning the Economist/Case-Shiller chart I referenced.

The term “Urban land prices” is misleading as the Japanese report RE values differently than we do. If you check out this explanation of the Japan Urban Land Prices report:

http://www.reinet.or.jp/en/pdf/20081216pdf1.pdf

it appears they look at the value of the land under a house or CR building in reporting (they seperate the value of the building out). So the Case-Shiller chart is not comparing US houses to Japanese raw land per-se. It’s comparing the closest apples to apples report available.

[Rt.66]

SDEngineer:

I just found this concerning the Economist/Case-Shiller chart I referenced.

The term “Urban land prices” is misleading as the Japanese report RE values differently than we do. If you check out this explanation of the Japan Urban Land Prices report:

http://www.reinet.or.jp/en/pdf/20081216pdf1.pdf

it appears they look at the value of the land under a house or CR building in reporting (they seperate the value of the building out). So the Case-Shiller chart is not comparing US houses to Japanese raw land per-se. It’s comparing the closest apples to apples report available.

[Rt.66]

SDEngineer:

I just found this concerning the Economist/Case-Shiller chart I referenced.

The term “Urban land prices” is misleading as the Japanese report RE values differently than we do. If you check out this explanation of the Japan Urban Land Prices report:

http://www.reinet.or.jp/en/pdf/20081216pdf1.pdf

it appears they look at the value of the land under a house or CR building in reporting (they seperate the value of the building out). So the Case-Shiller chart is not comparing US houses to Japanese raw land per-se. It’s comparing the closest apples to apples report available.

[Rt.66]

SDEngineer:

I just found this concerning the Economist/Case-Shiller chart I referenced.

The term “Urban land prices” is misleading as the Japanese report RE values differently than we do. If you check out this explanation of the Japan Urban Land Prices report:

http://www.reinet.or.jp/en/pdf/20081216pdf1.pdf

it appears they look at the value of the land under a house or CR building in reporting (they seperate the value of the building out). So the Case-Shiller chart is not comparing US houses to Japanese raw land per-se. It’s comparing the closest apples to apples report available.

[Author]

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