50% off is the regular price.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=deadzone]Sdengineer, what company do you work for? I know a couple local software engineers who are recently layed off, the job market is difficult right now for engineers in San Diego (and probably everywhere).

I recruited at a high tech job fair a few months ago here in town and it was shocking how many people were looking for work, and how few companies were represented at the fair. The difference from a couple years ago was startling.

I have to disagree that there is enough work to employee all engineers in the US. The fact is in a down economy with severe credit problems, it is difficult for companies, particulaly start ups to get any kind of venture capital. Without funding, there is no jobs.

This may only be temporary but the fact is, the job market is bad right onw, and getting worse. Engineers are not immune.[/quote]

Sorry, didn’t mean to imply that engineers were completely immune. The fact is that most companies right now are in a hiring freeze, which impacts new job seekers. Few companies that I’m aware of, however, are actively laying engineers off. During a downturn, this seems to be normal behavior for most companies (excluding tech led recessions like the dot com bust).

I work for a hospital equipment manufacturer in San Diego. Won’t say which one, but there are several companies fitting this description in San Diego, and I know that ALL of us are hiring engineers right now (for specific needs). What we are not doing right now is hiring newly degreed engineers – that is, unfortunately, something that happens during pretty much all downturns. New college graduates unfortunately get the short end of the stick in every recession.

Those degrees, however, are not useless – on the next uptick, expect all of them to be hired relatively quickly.

No job category is completely immune, but what is outside of medical professions? During normal economic conditions, engineering probably has one of the lowest unemployment rates around, and even during recessions in most cases engineering jobs (once landed anyway) are typically fairly recession proof.

I’d wager that the high proportion of engineering and other high tech/biotech jobs, as well as the military, are the reasons San Diego is doing much better compared to the rest of CA in terms of unemployment rate.

[Rt.66]

What have we learned so far?

For starters, adjusting for inflation is BS, 1990s maybe even 1980s prices here we come (no adjusting necessary).

Some engineers are doing really well while some are getting laid off; generally workers are losing jobs in droves.

Japan’s own charts show the US housing bubble was much worse than the one that sunk Japan into nearly 18 years of RE declines and counting. Doubters may lump land, CR and housing together if they need to in order to see just how worse off we are than Japan.

Japan pumped money into its system with bailouts and none worked. We are using the Japan model in dealing with this crisis. And surprise, billion$ pumped into our system go straight to zombie banks and into banker pockets.

IMF and other world leaders and economists say this mess is just starting to get ugly.

Those who purchased recently, are hoping for a fairy tale market turn around to restore their equity, make a living selling houses or those just too antsy to remain on the fence will try like the devil to convince themselves and others that this is somehow not just getting started and somehow this will avoid getting much worse.

Housing priced at 50% off the greatest bubble in history is not 50% off, it’s the regular price. If you are looking for a real discount on RE…..it starts at 51%.

[Rt.66]

What have we learned so far?

For starters, adjusting for inflation is BS, 1990s maybe even 1980s prices here we come (no adjusting necessary).

Some engineers are doing really well while some are getting laid off; generally workers are losing jobs in droves.

Japan’s own charts show the US housing bubble was much worse than the one that sunk Japan into nearly 18 years of RE declines and counting. Doubters may lump land, CR and housing together if they need to in order to see just how worse off we are than Japan.

Japan pumped money into its system with bailouts and none worked. We are using the Japan model in dealing with this crisis. And surprise, billion$ pumped into our system go straight to zombie banks and into banker pockets.

IMF and other world leaders and economists say this mess is just starting to get ugly.

Those who purchased recently, are hoping for a fairy tale market turn around to restore their equity, make a living selling houses or those just too antsy to remain on the fence will try like the devil to convince themselves and others that this is somehow not just getting started and somehow this will avoid getting much worse.

Housing priced at 50% off the greatest bubble in history is not 50% off, it’s the regular price. If you are looking for a real discount on RE…..it starts at 51%.

[Rt.66]

What have we learned so far?

For starters, adjusting for inflation is BS, 1990s maybe even 1980s prices here we come (no adjusting necessary).

Some engineers are doing really well while some are getting laid off; generally workers are losing jobs in droves.

Japan’s own charts show the US housing bubble was much worse than the one that sunk Japan into nearly 18 years of RE declines and counting. Doubters may lump land, CR and housing together if they need to in order to see just how worse off we are than Japan.

Japan pumped money into its system with bailouts and none worked. We are using the Japan model in dealing with this crisis. And surprise, billion$ pumped into our system go straight to zombie banks and into banker pockets.

IMF and other world leaders and economists say this mess is just starting to get ugly.

Those who purchased recently, are hoping for a fairy tale market turn around to restore their equity, make a living selling houses or those just too antsy to remain on the fence will try like the devil to convince themselves and others that this is somehow not just getting started and somehow this will avoid getting much worse.

Housing priced at 50% off the greatest bubble in history is not 50% off, it’s the regular price. If you are looking for a real discount on RE…..it starts at 51%.

[Rt.66]

What have we learned so far?

For starters, adjusting for inflation is BS, 1990s maybe even 1980s prices here we come (no adjusting necessary).

Some engineers are doing really well while some are getting laid off; generally workers are losing jobs in droves.

Japan’s own charts show the US housing bubble was much worse than the one that sunk Japan into nearly 18 years of RE declines and counting. Doubters may lump land, CR and housing together if they need to in order to see just how worse off we are than Japan.

Japan pumped money into its system with bailouts and none worked. We are using the Japan model in dealing with this crisis. And surprise, billion$ pumped into our system go straight to zombie banks and into banker pockets.

IMF and other world leaders and economists say this mess is just starting to get ugly.

Those who purchased recently, are hoping for a fairy tale market turn around to restore their equity, make a living selling houses or those just too antsy to remain on the fence will try like the devil to convince themselves and others that this is somehow not just getting started and somehow this will avoid getting much worse.

Housing priced at 50% off the greatest bubble in history is not 50% off, it’s the regular price. If you are looking for a real discount on RE…..it starts at 51%.

[Rt.66]

What have we learned so far?

For starters, adjusting for inflation is BS, 1990s maybe even 1980s prices here we come (no adjusting necessary).

Some engineers are doing really well while some are getting laid off; generally workers are losing jobs in droves.

Japan’s own charts show the US housing bubble was much worse than the one that sunk Japan into nearly 18 years of RE declines and counting. Doubters may lump land, CR and housing together if they need to in order to see just how worse off we are than Japan.

Japan pumped money into its system with bailouts and none worked. We are using the Japan model in dealing with this crisis. And surprise, billion$ pumped into our system go straight to zombie banks and into banker pockets.

IMF and other world leaders and economists say this mess is just starting to get ugly.

Those who purchased recently, are hoping for a fairy tale market turn around to restore their equity, make a living selling houses or those just too antsy to remain on the fence will try like the devil to convince themselves and others that this is somehow not just getting started and somehow this will avoid getting much worse.

Housing priced at 50% off the greatest bubble in history is not 50% off, it’s the regular price. If you are looking for a real discount on RE…..it starts at 51%.

[Anonymous]

You’re right, defense and medical are the most stable industries in a downturn like this. I am recommending my friends to focus on defense work if they can find it.

But overall there is less defense hiring in a downturn like this. And regarding medical, I read a while back that Cardinal Health was laying off. So really nothing is immune righ now.

For new grads the problem is even worse, as you say, because there are hiring freezes all over. In this environment the only way new jobs open up is through retirements. But with everybodys 401Ks getting wacked, and their homes losing value, many people won’t/can’t retire when they otherwise would have.

[Anonymous]

You’re right, defense and medical are the most stable industries in a downturn like this. I am recommending my friends to focus on defense work if they can find it.

But overall there is less defense hiring in a downturn like this. And regarding medical, I read a while back that Cardinal Health was laying off. So really nothing is immune righ now.

For new grads the problem is even worse, as you say, because there are hiring freezes all over. In this environment the only way new jobs open up is through retirements. But with everybodys 401Ks getting wacked, and their homes losing value, many people won’t/can’t retire when they otherwise would have.

[Anonymous]

You’re right, defense and medical are the most stable industries in a downturn like this. I am recommending my friends to focus on defense work if they can find it.

But overall there is less defense hiring in a downturn like this. And regarding medical, I read a while back that Cardinal Health was laying off. So really nothing is immune righ now.

For new grads the problem is even worse, as you say, because there are hiring freezes all over. In this environment the only way new jobs open up is through retirements. But with everybodys 401Ks getting wacked, and their homes losing value, many people won’t/can’t retire when they otherwise would have.

[Anonymous]

You’re right, defense and medical are the most stable industries in a downturn like this. I am recommending my friends to focus on defense work if they can find it.

But overall there is less defense hiring in a downturn like this. And regarding medical, I read a while back that Cardinal Health was laying off. So really nothing is immune righ now.

For new grads the problem is even worse, as you say, because there are hiring freezes all over. In this environment the only way new jobs open up is through retirements. But with everybodys 401Ks getting wacked, and their homes losing value, many people won’t/can’t retire when they otherwise would have.

[Anonymous]

You’re right, defense and medical are the most stable industries in a downturn like this. I am recommending my friends to focus on defense work if they can find it.

But overall there is less defense hiring in a downturn like this. And regarding medical, I read a while back that Cardinal Health was laying off. So really nothing is immune righ now.

For new grads the problem is even worse, as you say, because there are hiring freezes all over. In this environment the only way new jobs open up is through retirements. But with everybodys 401Ks getting wacked, and their homes losing value, many people won’t/can’t retire when they otherwise would have.

[patientrenter]

Sounds like there’s a lot of emotion on this issue, so I’ll just drop in on this thread and drop out.

The notion that 50% off peak prices is a baseline, not a nadir, isn’t so far-fetched. I always scratch my head when I see fellow Piggs say that they expect the market to bottom at the price level that prevailed some time between 2000 and 2003. Sure, that could happen, but real estate is very cyclical, and the bottom of the last cycle was not then – it was 1996 or so.

In my own attempts to ballpark what home prices in So Cal might do as they reach bottom in the next few years, I:

1. Start with prices as of the bottom of the last cycle – 1996

2. Add some inflation. You can argue over the amount, but it’s not worth refining too much, so I just add about 40-60%, depending on my mood.

3. Subtract some for the extra severity of this downturn. This is a pure guess. Your guess is as good as mine (unless it’s different!)

4. Add some for the massive government efforts to maintain high home prices in this latest downturn. Who knows?

Because the last 2 are pure guesses, I tend to not do any explicit calculation for them, and just assume that in some hard-hit areas, prices will get in the neighborhood of the 1996 inflation-adjusted level and maybe lower, and in some sheltered areas, prices could stay higher by a significant %.

How does all that relate to the discussion about 50% off peak? Given that home prices at their peak were perhaps 4-6 times what they were in 1996, I see 50% off peak as being near the high end of my expected price range at the bottom this time.

[patientrenter]

Sounds like there’s a lot of emotion on this issue, so I’ll just drop in on this thread and drop out.

The notion that 50% off peak prices is a baseline, not a nadir, isn’t so far-fetched. I always scratch my head when I see fellow Piggs say that they expect the market to bottom at the price level that prevailed some time between 2000 and 2003. Sure, that could happen, but real estate is very cyclical, and the bottom of the last cycle was not then – it was 1996 or so.

In my own attempts to ballpark what home prices in So Cal might do as they reach bottom in the next few years, I:

1. Start with prices as of the bottom of the last cycle – 1996

2. Add some inflation. You can argue over the amount, but it’s not worth refining too much, so I just add about 40-60%, depending on my mood.

3. Subtract some for the extra severity of this downturn. This is a pure guess. Your guess is as good as mine (unless it’s different!)

4. Add some for the massive government efforts to maintain high home prices in this latest downturn. Who knows?

Because the last 2 are pure guesses, I tend to not do any explicit calculation for them, and just assume that in some hard-hit areas, prices will get in the neighborhood of the 1996 inflation-adjusted level and maybe lower, and in some sheltered areas, prices could stay higher by a significant %.

How does all that relate to the discussion about 50% off peak? Given that home prices at their peak were perhaps 4-6 times what they were in 1996, I see 50% off peak as being near the high end of my expected price range at the bottom this time.

[patientrenter]

Sounds like there’s a lot of emotion on this issue, so I’ll just drop in on this thread and drop out.

The notion that 50% off peak prices is a baseline, not a nadir, isn’t so far-fetched. I always scratch my head when I see fellow Piggs say that they expect the market to bottom at the price level that prevailed some time between 2000 and 2003. Sure, that could happen, but real estate is very cyclical, and the bottom of the last cycle was not then – it was 1996 or so.

In my own attempts to ballpark what home prices in So Cal might do as they reach bottom in the next few years, I:

1. Start with prices as of the bottom of the last cycle – 1996

2. Add some inflation. You can argue over the amount, but it’s not worth refining too much, so I just add about 40-60%, depending on my mood.

3. Subtract some for the extra severity of this downturn. This is a pure guess. Your guess is as good as mine (unless it’s different!)

4. Add some for the massive government efforts to maintain high home prices in this latest downturn. Who knows?

Because the last 2 are pure guesses, I tend to not do any explicit calculation for them, and just assume that in some hard-hit areas, prices will get in the neighborhood of the 1996 inflation-adjusted level and maybe lower, and in some sheltered areas, prices could stay higher by a significant %.

How does all that relate to the discussion about 50% off peak? Given that home prices at their peak were perhaps 4-6 times what they were in 1996, I see 50% off peak as being near the high end of my expected price range at the bottom this time.

[patientrenter]

Sounds like there’s a lot of emotion on this issue, so I’ll just drop in on this thread and drop out.

The notion that 50% off peak prices is a baseline, not a nadir, isn’t so far-fetched. I always scratch my head when I see fellow Piggs say that they expect the market to bottom at the price level that prevailed some time between 2000 and 2003. Sure, that could happen, but real estate is very cyclical, and the bottom of the last cycle was not then – it was 1996 or so.

In my own attempts to ballpark what home prices in So Cal might do as they reach bottom in the next few years, I:

1. Start with prices as of the bottom of the last cycle – 1996

2. Add some inflation. You can argue over the amount, but it’s not worth refining too much, so I just add about 40-60%, depending on my mood.

3. Subtract some for the extra severity of this downturn. This is a pure guess. Your guess is as good as mine (unless it’s different!)

4. Add some for the massive government efforts to maintain high home prices in this latest downturn. Who knows?

Because the last 2 are pure guesses, I tend to not do any explicit calculation for them, and just assume that in some hard-hit areas, prices will get in the neighborhood of the 1996 inflation-adjusted level and maybe lower, and in some sheltered areas, prices could stay higher by a significant %.

How does all that relate to the discussion about 50% off peak? Given that home prices at their peak were perhaps 4-6 times what they were in 1996, I see 50% off peak as being near the high end of my expected price range at the bottom this time.

[Author]

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