4S Ranch – (3000+sq/ft update) Pienza / Evergreen / Maybeck

[4Sbuyer2002]

EVERGREEN: All phases sold out. Had two confirmed buyers drop out last week. Both were immediately sold: No homes available. Development, including model homes, sold out. Prices of last units sold (Phase 6):

Model 3,002 (sq/ft)
lot 849 (lot size 5,488sq/ft): $718,990
lot 850 (lot size 5,727sq/ft): $725,990

Model 3,342 (sq/ft)
lot 847 (lot size 6,372sq/ft): $796,990
lot 673 (lot size 6,190sq/ft): $830,990
lot 676 (lot size 6,100sq/ft): $828,990
lot 677 (lot size 6,249sq/ft): $831,990

Developer Models (upgraded)
Model 3,342 (sq/ft)
lot 680 (lot size 6,645sq/ft): $872,990
Model 3,550 (sq/ft)
lot 679 (lot size 6,120sq/ft): $1,031,990

PIENZA: Had phase 6 of 7 release on Saturday with 7 homes available. By 3:00pm on Saturday 6 of the 7 had sold (75% of Pienza homes now sold). Prices of 6 homes sold on Saturday: Note: lot sizes unavailable but in general size of Evergreen (i.e. very small at 5500 to 6500sq ft). 1 home available until next phase release. Prices of most recently sold units:

Model 2901 (sq/ft)
lot 761: $752,990
lot 825: $721,390

Model 3212 (sq/ft)
lot 759: $787,490

Model 3365 (sq/ft)
lot 760: $783,990
lot 828: $751,990

MAYBECK: Phase 3 of 7 release last week. One home available all others sold. NOTE: These 3000+ sq/ft home have NO BACKYARD. Instead they are in rows with garages in back facing each other. Each home has “large courtyard.” I believe this is a first a 3000+ sq/ft home which is essentially a supersized condo with no yard. Hard to call something a “single family home” if it has no backyard. 1 home available until next phase release. Prices of most recently sold units:

Model “Plan 1 w/suite (i.e. full bed w/bath on ground floor) ” 3,172 (sq/ft)
lot ??: $766,500

Modle “Plan 2 w/suite” 3,438 (sq/ft)
lot ??: $764,990

Model “Plan 3 no suite” 3,252 (sq/ft)
lot ??: $731,500

Model “Plan 3 w/suite” 3,700 (sq/ft)
lot ??: $779,900

AVERAGES OF COSTS RECENTLY SOLD NEW HOMES (Models and Maybeck “super condos” not included):

Price per sqaure foot: $243,000
Cost of average hypothetical 3100 sq/ft new home in 4S Ranch $753,283 with an average lot size of just less than 1/8 acre (i.e. very small).

What does this mean??? New homes are selling with little to no problem. People aren’t climbing over the top of each other to buy but builders are having no problems moving the inventor.

The bigger question is . . . where will these prices be one year from now?

a grateful owner . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Correction: Price per square foot: $243

grateful owner . . . .

[Critter]

These homes still have to go through the escrow process, yes? I’m asking because I’ve heard that some escrows are dropping out due to the inability of the buyer to secure solid financing.

I would be interested to know if this is a problem mainly with resale homes, new homes, or both. Anyone have any first-hand info?

[Borat]

If those prices remain at that level, I’ll be a renter until my income doubles. Fine by me.

[sdrealtor]

nice

[PerryChase]

Builders are usually the first ones to lower prices just enough to move inventory.
Is Fieldstone competitive with other builders and resales in $4S? I don’t follow that neighborhood, but I have a feeling that resellers are still high (pun intended).

[4Sbuyer2002]

My impression was that the builders were squeezing “all that the market will bear” in terms of pricing the inventory just competitive enough to move it fairly quickly. At least in a neighborhood such as 4S Ranch the prices depicted above are what the market (demand) currently supports in an area such as 4S Ranch. One note on this new inventory vs. resale (in other parts of 4S Ranch); with the current new homes available builders have reached a new low in terms of cramming as many homes into as small an area as possible. Other same square footage homes elsewhere in 4S have on average bigger yards than the current inventory. Now “bigger” is a relative term. The new homes are on postage stamp sized 5500 to 6500 sq/ft lots. Most homes elsewhere in 4S ranch have average lot sizes from 8000 to 10000 sq/ft lots. Still quite small when you consider a 1/4 lot is 12,000+/- sq/ft. Anecdotal evidence from some realtors (take it for what its worth . . . not much) indicate that this is actually helping move some of the resale inventory. Interested buyers come to view the selection of new homes because they like the area/community, are turned off by how small the lots are and discover resale homes in same community generally offer more in terms of lot and yard size. Again I heard this from 2 different realtors. Fact or fiction??? But it makes sense.

grateful owner . . . .

[gn]

4Sbuyer2002,

In today’s market, where many resellers have problems selling. For every home sold by the builders, there is one home NOT being sold by a reseller. The builders are simply stealing sales away from the resale market. Every new home being built just add more the the supply side of the equation, making things worse for the market.

What’s going on is NOT a reflection of the market’s strength. It’s a reflection of the builders’ pricing strategies.

If you only look at new home sales, you see a rosy picture. But if you look at the entire market, you’ll see the opposite. 🙂

[cashman]

Excuse my ignorance, but these sales figures sure don’t suggest a collapsing market, at least in that neighborhood. Whether sales are new or resale, nonetheless a sale has been made. And strong pricing for the new homes will support, if only temporarily, resale pricing. I was out in Irvine this weekend and looked at several new tracts in Portola Springs neighborhood. Same story. Sales are strong and the parking lots were full. Guess most of the public doesn’t have the same perception that us Pigginton bloggers have.

[masayako]

I agree with Borat. If those prices remain at that level, I’ll continue to rent until the ‘price to own’ make fundamental sense to me. If it means never, then so be it.

I would rather save the money in my investment account and work on my net worth. R.E. is definitely a bad investment if you buy during this bubble period. Stupid move.

Masayako

[JJGittes]

Maybe we should stop betting on when the real crash will arrive, and instead place some wagers on when this website and other bearish RE sites simply degenerate into a few dozen people posting over and over “…but, but, but, it’s just not fairrrr….”

Hey, I’ve been reading this site and others for a long time now, and I’ve seen prices come down some, but in the good areas, ie the areas I want to (and do) live in, like coastal n. county, and scripps ranch, and a few others in good school districts, things are chugging along quite well. I noted on another site that I personnaly saw a LOT of interest at Trieste, a new development in La Costa Greens. I got mocked, like I am a liar or something. Well, I am not a liar or an RE chearleader.

Hey, predict doom all you want, but if a ‘crash’ happens in the areas I mentioned, its going to happen in slowwww motion through flat prices and inflation. I base this on seeing what is actually selling right now, and how little is currently coming on the market in these good areas.

[MANmom]

MANmom

I remember the same thing happening back in 1995 when my husband and I bought during the last bust. We looked at several established homes and could not get anything near what we got from the new home builder…we bought new because we got a much better deal. There was plenty of inventory out there, but again, the sellers wanted incredible amounts of money for their little peice of crap with no yard. Our agent pretty much told us that we should buy the new home, he couldn’t offer anything like that in the resale market (one of those rare honest agents). We went with a new home because it was fresh and clean and about $60,000 cheaper than resale homes. I am seeing the same thing now, but the only thing keeping us from jumping in to a new home is the huge tax burden…mello-roos has become unbelievable high. Why spend an additional $1,000 a month or more for a new home? They would have to give me a huge price break for us to go with a new home today.

[PerryChase]

MANmom, 1995 was a different time. I remember well. At that time you had to rely on the Realtor to drive you to houses from print-outs with no pictures. Today you can just review the MLS listings yourself (for example on ziprealty).

I think it’s going to be a slow ride down (6 to 7 years). In the mean time, review all the listings in a neighborhoods that you like. You can set it to receive an email when new listings pop up — there aren’t too many.

Over time, you’ll get a good idea of the homes that come on and off the market. You’ll also get very familiar with the neighborhoods where you wish to live. When the time is right, you’ll know it. If you’ve got a nice comfortable place to live right now, you can watch the market slowly evolve. Take the emotion out of buying and you’ll know it when you have a great buy. Patience is key.

[4plexowner]

Excellent advice from PerryChase on becoming familiar with the areas you are interested in

When I was shopping for property I had driven the streets so many times that when I was sitting at my computer and received a new listing on Fulton (for example), I didn’t have to drive by it because I already knew that Fulton was a narrow street with cars lining both sides

Developing this level of familiarity with your areas of interest will also help you develop a gut feel for prices/values – you will be able to tell whether something is really a deal or just a pig-with-lipstick parading as a deal

[MANmom]

MANmom

Yes, Perry that is true, and I have been viewing all listings the past two or three years. But the scenario is the same…what this thread is talking about is big discounts and quick sales on newly built homes. The builders cannot just sit and wait it out like most homeowners. Yes, there are foreclosures, but in general the emotion is in the eye of the seller. They cannot accept that home prices are riduculous right now but are coming down; they want the same price for their home that the neighbor down the street got a year or two ago, and that ain’t gonna happen, at least not from me. I know my neighborhood well, have lived here many years. I am not asking for much, just a house big enough for my kids (three) with a bit of a yard and taxes that are reasonable. I am not looking to make big bucks in a few years, I don’t even care if it is a fixer. I have watched the market dilligently over the last two years. I know we have another few years to reach bottom, but I am not trying to time the bottom of the market. I am simply pointing out that 1995 was similar to today, new homes with discounts are selling, but with the tax bite, I am not buying.

[Author]

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