“43% Overpriced”

[NeetaT]

I did some math and took many things into consideration and came to the conclusion that median price needs to drop 43% to be in parity with San Diego’s economy. Don’t ask me to explain the math, because I am no expert by far. With that said, does anyone know how far I’m off as juxtaposed with expert analysis?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Do you mean a further 43% decline from today or 43% total.
A 43% real decline (accounting for both nominal home price drops and wage and/or rent inflation) would be in line with some folks’ interpretations of Rich’s charts as of 2005.
My guess is that about half of that drop has already occurred.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Do you mean a further 43% decline from today or 43% total.
A 43% real decline (accounting for both nominal home price drops and wage and/or rent inflation) would be in line with some folks’ interpretations of Rich’s charts as of 2005.
My guess is that about half of that drop has already occurred.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Do you mean a further 43% decline from today or 43% total.
A 43% real decline (accounting for both nominal home price drops and wage and/or rent inflation) would be in line with some folks’ interpretations of Rich’s charts as of 2005.
My guess is that about half of that drop has already occurred.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Do you mean a further 43% decline from today or 43% total.
A 43% real decline (accounting for both nominal home price drops and wage and/or rent inflation) would be in line with some folks’ interpretations of Rich’s charts as of 2005.
My guess is that about half of that drop has already occurred.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Do you mean a further 43% decline from today or 43% total.
A 43% real decline (accounting for both nominal home price drops and wage and/or rent inflation) would be in line with some folks’ interpretations of Rich’s charts as of 2005.
My guess is that about half of that drop has already occurred.

[kewp]

Uh, I’ll hesitate to say there isn’t any expert analysis here, as no one can predict the future. Even if someone did, in this case, unless they could do it consistently I would not lend their prognostications much weight.

I will ask you if you’ve considered that the SD economy is ~25% real-estate related. Thats something I think many miss; that as sales slow to a crawl and construction stops entirely that the median income is going to drop as well.

[kewp]

Uh, I’ll hesitate to say there isn’t any expert analysis here, as no one can predict the future. Even if someone did, in this case, unless they could do it consistently I would not lend their prognostications much weight.

I will ask you if you’ve considered that the SD economy is ~25% real-estate related. Thats something I think many miss; that as sales slow to a crawl and construction stops entirely that the median income is going to drop as well.

[kewp]

Uh, I’ll hesitate to say there isn’t any expert analysis here, as no one can predict the future. Even if someone did, in this case, unless they could do it consistently I would not lend their prognostications much weight.

I will ask you if you’ve considered that the SD economy is ~25% real-estate related. Thats something I think many miss; that as sales slow to a crawl and construction stops entirely that the median income is going to drop as well.

[kewp]

Uh, I’ll hesitate to say there isn’t any expert analysis here, as no one can predict the future. Even if someone did, in this case, unless they could do it consistently I would not lend their prognostications much weight.

I will ask you if you’ve considered that the SD economy is ~25% real-estate related. Thats something I think many miss; that as sales slow to a crawl and construction stops entirely that the median income is going to drop as well.

[kewp]

Uh, I’ll hesitate to say there isn’t any expert analysis here, as no one can predict the future. Even if someone did, in this case, unless they could do it consistently I would not lend their prognostications much weight.

I will ask you if you’ve considered that the SD economy is ~25% real-estate related. Thats something I think many miss; that as sales slow to a crawl and construction stops entirely that the median income is going to drop as well.

[NeetaT]

Actually, I mean from today’s median price. OK, I know this is over simplified, but here goes. I found out that the median household income is approximately $52,000.00 per year after taxes. After taking monthly expenses into consideration, a husband and wife would have at most $2,000.00 left over to pay a fixed mortgage. So with that in mind, the most they would be able to mortgage is $335,000.00 at 6.0% fixed rate which is 43% less than the median priced home in San Diego. I know my math is arbitrary, but it is the best I can do. I gave it a shot. I’m just reaching for any explanation to a perplexing situation that frankly drives me nuts.

[NeetaT]

Actually, I mean from today’s median price. OK, I know this is over simplified, but here goes. I found out that the median household income is approximately $52,000.00 per year after taxes. After taking monthly expenses into consideration, a husband and wife would have at most $2,000.00 left over to pay a fixed mortgage. So with that in mind, the most they would be able to mortgage is $335,000.00 at 6.0% fixed rate which is 43% less than the median priced home in San Diego. I know my math is arbitrary, but it is the best I can do. I gave it a shot. I’m just reaching for any explanation to a perplexing situation that frankly drives me nuts.

[NeetaT]

Actually, I mean from today’s median price. OK, I know this is over simplified, but here goes. I found out that the median household income is approximately $52,000.00 per year after taxes. After taking monthly expenses into consideration, a husband and wife would have at most $2,000.00 left over to pay a fixed mortgage. So with that in mind, the most they would be able to mortgage is $335,000.00 at 6.0% fixed rate which is 43% less than the median priced home in San Diego. I know my math is arbitrary, but it is the best I can do. I gave it a shot. I’m just reaching for any explanation to a perplexing situation that frankly drives me nuts.

[NeetaT]

Actually, I mean from today’s median price. OK, I know this is over simplified, but here goes. I found out that the median household income is approximately $52,000.00 per year after taxes. After taking monthly expenses into consideration, a husband and wife would have at most $2,000.00 left over to pay a fixed mortgage. So with that in mind, the most they would be able to mortgage is $335,000.00 at 6.0% fixed rate which is 43% less than the median priced home in San Diego. I know my math is arbitrary, but it is the best I can do. I gave it a shot. I’m just reaching for any explanation to a perplexing situation that frankly drives me nuts.

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