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FlyerInHi.
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July 22, 2016 at 2:37 PM #799834July 22, 2016 at 3:06 PM #799835
FlyerInHi
Guest[quote=sdsurfer][quote=bearishgurl]If newcomers can’t find housing in SD County that they can afford and is near enough to their prospective jobs, then they simply won’t come … plain and simple. [/quote]
Hey BG,
When is the last time people “stopped coming”? I feel like this is more of a theory that you are believing people will get fed up and go elsewhere, but I’d love some data or a history lesson on when it occurred in the past.
I hate to be naive, but I feel like people will just rent to live where they cannot afford or end up a bit inland with a commute….possibly working a job they do not like to live in a climate/area they do like. It’s just a theory and I have no data to support it though. I’ve actually been looking recently.[/quote]
The way I see if, a lot of long time residents get fed up or they cash out and move out. The new immigrants do just fine. They find ways to thrive. It’s been like that since the 80s. LA attracts a lot of young domestic immigrants hoping to make it in the big city.
July 22, 2016 at 5:52 PM #799837flyer
ParticipantFrom a recent article:
“The amount of money being spent on rent is at generational highs. High rents make it tougher for potential home buyers to save for a down payment and this trend has impacted Millennials greatly.
Over the last decade we have gained 10 million renter households while netting out at close to zero for actual homeowners.
Americans who own a home with a mortgage are spending a smaller share of their income on the mortgage payment. But what you will also notice is that renters are spending a lot more of their income on rents.
While nationwide people that have a mortgage are spending less, in Los Angeles people are now spending more (nearly 50 percent of income on mortgage payments). And it is worse for renters: between 1985 and 2000 the average amount of income spent on rent was 36 percent for the L.A. metro area. Today it is at 48 percent–nearly half of income is spent on rent or mortgage payments.”
Should be interesting to see how this plays out long-term.
July 22, 2016 at 6:24 PM #799840GuestLot splitting will eventually be allowed especially if Uber autonomous cars become ubiquitous and parking requirements decrease.
This is a new house in Portland built on the former lawn of another house.
July 23, 2016 at 9:44 AM #799846bearishgurl
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=sdsurfer][quote=bearishgurl]If newcomers can’t find housing in SD County that they can afford and is near enough to their prospective jobs, then they simply won’t come … plain and simple. [/quote]
Hey BG,
When is the last time people “stopped coming”? I feel like this is more of a theory that you are believing people will get fed up and go elsewhere, but I’d love some data or a history lesson on when it occurred in the past.
I hate to be naive, but I feel like people will just rent to live where they cannot afford or end up a bit inland with a commute….possibly working a job they do not like to live in a climate/area they do like. It’s just a theory and I have no data to support it though. I’ve actually been looking recently.[/quote]
The way I see if, a lot of long time residents get fed up or they cash out and move out. The new immigrants do just fine. They find ways to thrive. It’s been like that since the 80s. LA attracts a lot of young domestic immigrants hoping to make it in the big city.[/quote]Back from LA, again … the land of larger single-family lots than SD.
I never stated in this thread that people will “stop coming” to SD. I essentially stated that local and regional government hold the keys as to how many housing units are approved for new construction. Or if any are approved at all. I stated that we don’t owe newcomers new construction to live in. People don’t move anywhere without knowing they are going to have a place to live and move their household goods into. That is, unless they have a local friend or relative to stay with for a few weeks (months?) while their belongings sit in storage in the locale they came from. They don’t make a final decision to accept a job here or move here permanently unless they can find and secure “suitable” housing for their family situation. If a person considering accepting a job here comes here after a job offer is made to them to see if they can secure “suitable” housing which they will be able to afford and they or their families do not like what is on offer in their price range, they will not accept the job offer, plain and simple. No harm done, they are still employed back home and they never packed up their home to begin with.
This happens every day for all ranks of the military, especially if the member (sponsor) is subject to long and frequent deployments. It doesn’t matter to the member’s family that they can get military housing while living here or a larger housing allowance by accompanying the member. It only matters that they are currently more “comfortable” where they live now and are closer to extended family. When these families come here in advance of PCS orders and look at available housing and its locations (both govm’t-owned and civilian housing), they often decline accompanying the sponsor to his/her new duty station because they perceive that where they currently live offers a better life for their families. It’s been this way for decades.
Even a person who is offered a high-paying or executive position in a CA coastal county doesn’t often accept it because they and/or their families aren’t willing to downgrade their living conditions to such as extent that they would feel uncomfortable doing so and/or their kids are already settled in their schools and they feel it doesn’t get any better than that.
Taking a job in a CA coastal county is a hard sell for a lot of very qualified job candidates residing in “flyover country.”
sdsurfer, I don’t see “long-time residents” cashing out and leaving SD County. Props 13, 58 and 193 have seen to that. There is absolutely no incentive whatsoever for them to do so as their cost of living will rise exponentially the very minute they close the sale on their personal residence here without another long-owned CA residence to move into. And where would they go when they’ve been here for 50+ years and their families are here? It doesn’t matter that many of them are “fed up” by ultra-long lines at the post office and congested surface streets which were once easy to traverse (the vast majority of them no longer commute on the freeways daily). This group has the option of hitting the road a few times a year when they get fed up enough to decide to get out of dodge. And they do.
sdsurfer, the problem with choosing the “long commutes” in SoCal is that this decision throws the homebuyer/prospective renter into oppressive heat 8-9 months per year. Even Burbank, CA (~20 miles inland) was 101 yesterday! The SGV was 108! The areas these people are choosing to live in and commute to jobs (in SD County, primarily the southern portion of the IE and SD North County inland) can get extremely hot for several months per year. What’s the difference in the weather there during these months than just staying in their beautiful TX spread for 1/4 to 1/2 the price and deciding not to move here at all? The daily “lifestyles” coastal dwellers live (<4 miles from the coast) and those that inland dwellers live in SoCal are night and day from one another! There is no real "draw" to come and work here from US "flyover country" if the job candidate has a family with minor children they must consider. The difference in the compensation they will be offered (if any) will NOT in any way, shape or form compensate them for the profound downgrade in lifestyle their families will make if they accept the position and move here accompanied by their immediate families. That is ... unless they choose to live far inland. If they make that choice, then their lives won't be any different than where they moved from (except the worker(s) in the household may have a longer daily commute, in much heavier traffic than they are used to). So, unless the new position in a CA coastal county offers a much better promotional path in their fields, it isn't worth accepting.
As for millenials who are recent college graduates, they can (and most certainly should) accept a job anywhere which allows them to get their foot in the door and get experience in their fields or build upon their current experience. This generation is huge and lining up to share what has now become very limited resources (esp in CA). Beggars can’t be choosers. If they are a Cali Native and are offered their first big break (or big promotional opportunity) at a Big Food conglomerate in Lincoln, NE, they should take it, IMO. They will have time to move back to Cali later, at a time they can better afford to live here (if they still wish to).
July 23, 2016 at 10:18 AM #799853GuestBG, you’re so inconsistent. Sometimes you say the lifestyle in CA justifies the cost of housing. Now you say moving to CA is a downgrade and Californians should move away for jobs then try to come back later.
Make up your mind.
No PNW. I hate the rain. I moved to Vegas but my family is in SD. I still have business in SD.
BG, get used to people moving to California. They will find ways to make it despite the cost of living. They may not live the lifestyle you like, but the world doesn’t revolve around you. And, in time, zoning will adjust to the needs of the population.
July 23, 2016 at 10:20 AM #799851Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Lot splitting will eventually be allowed especially if Uber autonomous cars become ubiquitous and parking requirements decrease.
This is a new house in Portland built on the former lawn of another house.
[/quote]I watched this video and it reminds me a little of Venice (in LA County). There are portions of SoCal coastal counties which have allowed 35′ wide lots for many decades. But NOT to the degree that Portland, Oregon has apparently issued a “variance” for (just 15′ and we don’t know how long for, lol).
Notice that the owner is single and the only one living there.
The homeowner even stated that he is not entirely sure of his actual lot lines. (Was that concrete staircase on the left side of this cramped “traincar” actually built on his lot??) This (deplorable) public record-keeping would never happen in CA. Nor would any lot narrower than 35′ be approved. Since the minimum width of a residential lot in the City of SD is 50 feet, this precludes any “lot splitting” en masse happening in SD. Good luck with that, brian.
Have you ever considered moving to the PNW??
July 23, 2016 at 10:28 AM #799855
Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=bearishgurl]I watched this video… [snip]
Notice that the owner is single and the only one living there.
[/quote]This is a perfect specimen of a BG post. Somewhat pedantically noting a minor detail, with added emphasis to stress the import of her keen observation.
Except, the video in question is titled “Small Portland prefab home stacks space to fit family of 3.” Sorry, I’ll translate that to BG-speak: “Small Portland prefab home stacks space to fit family of 3.” And said family of 3 is featured almost constantly throughout the video.
Simply perfect.
July 23, 2016 at 10:40 AM #799857Participant[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=bearishgurl]I watched this video… [snip]
Notice that the owner is single and the only one living there.
[/quote]This is a perfect specimen of a BG post. Somewhat pedantically noting a minor detail, with added emphasis to stress the import of her keen observation.
Except, the video in question is titled “Small Portland prefab home stacks space to fit family of 3.” Sorry, I’ll translate that to BG-speak: “Small Portland prefab home stacks space to fit family of 3.” And said family of 3 is featured almost constantly throughout the video.
Simply perfect.[/quote]Where are the other family member residents, Rich? And where do they sleep?
I would ask you, would YOU live in this home by yourself? How about with one or more other people??
July 23, 2016 at 10:44 AM #799856Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]BG, you’re so inconsistent. Sometimes you say the lifestyle in CA justifies the cost of housing. Now you say moving to CA is a downgrade and Californians should move away for jobs then try to come back later.
Make up your mind.
No PNW. I hate the rain. I moved to Vegas but my family is in SD. I still have business in SD.
BG, get used to people moving to California. They will find ways to make it despite the cost of living. They may not live the lifestyle you like, but the world doesn’t revolve around you. And, in time, zoning will adjust to the needs of the population.[/quote]The “coastal lifestyle” DOES justify the cost of housing …. for those who can afford it. Even though our beaches and bays are public, CA coastal RE was never meant for the masses to own. It’s been that way forever. Nothing has changed except the “expectations” of today’s homebuyer (mainly the millenials and youngest Gen X-ers). Their housing expectations in this region are through the roof! They have fantasies of how they should be able to live and their “sense of entitlement” keeps them from accepting what is actually on offer in their price range reasonably close to their jobs. Hence, we see a lot of young workers (with families in tow) take jobs in SD … only to move somewhere else which has a lifestyle inapposite to SD’s … and commute every day to work.
This massive group did it to themselves. And they were able to do it because our local gubment created the exurban sprawl mess we have now. This same demographic does not have that choice if they accept a position in CA’s Silicon Valley. Not unless they want the (hardscrabble) life of 5-8 hrs commuting every day. This is so because those regional leaders in bay area counties made good decisions as stewards of their environment. They took their elected posts and the wishes of their constituencies seriously, where SD County’s leaders did not.
July 23, 2016 at 10:53 AM #799858ParticipantThe homeowner in brian’s video ALSO pointed to his single window facing the street and stated (to the effect of), “I’ve never seen a view like this. The cars are coming right towards me.”
Just wait until a pre-dawn drunk in a large SUV races “towards him” … right into his (minuscule) garage. There goes his supporting beams … all it takes is once … lol
Oh well, he’s an architect, right? He can always rebuild. If his current or subsequent neighbor claims part of his concrete staircase as being on their lot and they win, he can always design a “creative” 2′ wide scaffolding or fire escape in the back to access the second floor from outside if he chooses. Nevermind it will be over his 8 x 8′ deck (which is practically the whole “backyard”) and he won’t be able to invite anyone over who weighs more than about 220 lbs :=0
July 23, 2016 at 12:21 PM #799860Participant[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=bearishgurl]I watched this video… [snip]
Notice that the owner is single and the only one living there.
[/quote]This is a perfect specimen of a BG post. Somewhat pedantically noting a minor detail, with added emphasis to stress the import of her keen observation.
Except, the video in question is titled “Small Portland prefab home stacks space to fit family of 3.” Sorry, I’ll translate that to BG-speak: “Small Portland prefab home stacks space to fit family of 3.” And said family of 3 is featured almost constantly throughout the video.
Simply perfect.[/quote]
I see the problem now. I’ve had two clients in and out this morning and DID click on brian’s link but it is now clear that we weren’t watching the same video. All I can think of is that I stopped the video and then when I came back to the utube page, I ended up watching a different video. I cannot now find the video I watched but it was NOT the same video as brian listed. The architect’s house was also remodeled to ~700 sf (he bought it originally at ~350 sf). I have no idea how he himself was able to conduct all his activities in it (3 story, incl the tiny garage), let alone a couple with a baby!
Most people endeavor to find something a little larger than 700 sf after their baby starts crawling around and needs a lot of “equipment,” lol ….
July 23, 2016 at 12:32 PM #799861Participant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=AN][quote=bearishgurl][quote=AN]BG, what you see on the street doesn’t jive with the data. You can look it up yourself. LA city have a density of 8000 people/square-mile. SD city have a density of 4000 people/square-mile.[/quote]I was comparing the entire counties, NOT just the cities of LA and SD.[/quote]
Your argument breaks down even worse when comparing county. LA County have a density of ~2100 people/sq-mile. While SD County have a density of ~680 people/sq-mile.[/quote]Exactly, AN. LA is now allowing building to the lot lines.
BG, you’re so out of touch. No wonder you want your country back.
The world will move on without you. It’s your responsibility to keep pace, not the other way around.[/quote]
The above video is the one I was referring to. It IS in LA (likely Venice or surrounds, which is one of the tightest-zoned places in CA, even tighter than Balboa Island in Newport Beach).Sorry for the confusion. I probably posted too fast between clients :=0
Again, we don’t know how long the homeowner received the variance for. His whole lot setup is wacky, IMO.
July 23, 2016 at 12:36 PM #799862ParticipantI want to close this side discussion by asking, “Do people really want to attempt to raise young families in sub-1000 sf home with stairs and little to no yard?” Is that really what today’s homebuyers will “settle” for?
I think not. It’s unimaginable to me … especially with kids.
July 23, 2016 at 1:31 PM #799863Guest[quote=bearishgurl]I want to close this side discussion by asking, “Do people really want to attempt to raise young families in sub-1000 sf home with stairs and little to no yard?” Is that really what today’s homebuyers will “settle” for?
I think not. It’s unimaginable to me … especially with kids.[/quote]
People do that in NYC, SF, and cities all over the world. When housing is expensive people find ways.
In USA, as our large cities get built out, we are going to live more like the rest of the world. And there will be bifurcation between urban and suburban lifestyles. Maybe another 100 years.
Things change, BG. You must not get around much and you’re so stuck in your ways. Drive around UCSD hospital in Hillcrest. You’ll see many new skinny houses/condos.
I lived in a apartment as a kid for a few years in Europe. I walked to school and went to a nice park nearby. I rode the subway alone. when I came back to the states to go to college I found that I was more grown up than my peer and I could figure out things more easily.
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