2022 YTD local appreciation

[Escoguy]

If the Zillow high end estimate for year to date is accurate, market is up about 6.7% year to date for 92027/92027/92078: call it a Q1 number.

Will be interesting to see how this year plays out.

[sdrealtor]

They have mine up 6.5% in last 30 days and 10% this year plus there are things in escrow that once closed will push it even higher. I think it all comes early this year. Called 10% in the bag last fall based upon the two areas I track weekly and already have that.

[flyer]

Yes, the last year has been incredible wrt appreciation on our properties. Even though we’re not planning to sell right now–the kids won’t let us:). We continue to be amazed–but still wondering how long it will last.

The ever-evolving conflict could be a game changer–especially if it expands beyond Ukraine. Excluding nucs, most of us should be fine to weather the storm, if not overextended. We’ll see. Here are a couple of opinions:
https://fortune.com/2022/03/07/ukraine-war-extreme-housing-shortage-redfin/
https://fortune.com/2022/03/03/housing-market-putin-real-estate-ukraine-invasion-war/

[Anonymous]

It is all about the Fed, interest rates are going up, Fed ending their QE this month. That signals the end of the bubble.

Check MBS prices right now, see what happens when the Fed cuts down on their artificial support of the housing market.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs

Look at the 1 year trend it is more clear what is going on. MBS market been dropping off since November when Fed announced then end of QE. This trend has nothing to do with Ukraine war.

[gzz]

My house has a 30-day change of 6.0%.

Zillow is pretty bad with estimating older areas with drastically different construction quality, views, and lot sizes. I also noticed they will increase a place by 25% in a year and say it went up 5%. Which is OK if they are just saying their old estimates were wrong, but this happens a lot.

They also seem to invariably have a really pessimistic 1 year price projection. During a boom with annual increases of 7% and more, the projection was always 3% to -1%, even when inventory was very low.

I give them credit for still being better than redfin. But it’s also disappointing that Zillow doesn’t seem to be any more accurate than it was 10 years ago. Appraisals are perfect for big data AI.

[gzz]

DZ, yes higher rates hurt at the margin. But not for the 97% of homes with no mortgage or locked in fixed rate. Especially for the buyer wanting to max out his house quality with a given payment.

And for the remaining group, rates are rising with inflation, which positively affects wages, buying power, rents, cost of new construction.

Last time rates popped was a buying opportunity, and it only took a year before you could refi into much lower rates.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=gzz]My house has a 30-day change of 6.0%.

Zillow is pretty bad with estimating older areas with drastically different construction quality, views, and lot sizes. I also noticed they will increase a place by 25% in a year and say it went up 5%. Which is OK if they are just saying their old estimates were wrong, but this happens a lot.

They also seem to invariably have a really pessimistic 1 year price projection. During a boom with annual increases of 7% and more, the projection was always 3% to -1%, even when inventory was very low.

I give them credit for still being better than redfin. But it’s also disappointing that Zillow doesn’t seem to be any more accurate than it was 10 years ago. Appraisals are perfect for big data AI.[/quote]

No they arent which is why they arent better. They have no way of knowing what the house looks like inside, that 6K sq ft usable lot can better than a 10K lot that has less usable land, how good a view, that there can be street noise on one side of a road but not another and so on. There is no substitute for in person valuation. None! There are far too many variables that must be seen in person and the fact zillow way overpaid for many homes and lost a ton is a perfect example of it in action.

Hell last year you were going on and on about a house in Encinitas thinking it was a short walk to the beach when in reality one would have to cut through someones house and jump off a 200 ft cliff to get to the beach in the time you thought looking at google maps

On another link I posted you said it was the nicest 2br detached house you had ever seen but it was a twinhome not a detached house. Mistakes abound

[flyer]

Agree there are many things that could derail the current real estate party, but, imo, those who have been in the market for many years–and bought primary and/or investment properties when prices were much lower–as most here have–as well as many new buyers–most of whom locked in low rates–might temporarily be affected on paper, if at all, and will simply look at any downturn as another buying opportunity, as gzz said.

Barring extreme catastrophic events, I believe the need and desire for housing will only increase going forward, so I’m sure many of us, if given the opportunity, will take advantage of another downturn, as we have in the past.

[sdrealtor]

Yes many of us will take advantage of another OoaL comes but not all of us. Some will always be waiting for more rather than jumping in when the numbers make sense

[sdrealtor]

Party on dead zone!

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