[quote=zk]I always like to hear as many sides to an argument as I can. Here is, from what I can tell from his very-poorly-presented case, a contrary view:
That’s Oppenheimer Asset Management’s chief investment strategist.I’d be interested to hear what more knowledgeable people than me have to say about his ideas.[/quote]
From John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
“While there is clearly some concern about the long-term sustainability of U.S. fiscal deficits, I remain convinced that there is no material credit risk in U.S. Treasury securities. There will certainly be fiscal difficulties to deal with, since we can’t actually inflate our way out of the U.S. debt (a large proportion is short maturity and would have to be rolled-over at higher interest rates in the event of inflation). Still, those difficulties are on the 3-10 year horizon, while the case for Treasury duration would be largely confined to the present business cycle. For now, we are maintaining a fairly short duration, but again, the main variable to watch at present is the level of credit spreads.
In my view, the commodity hoarding that predictably resulted from QE2 has increasingly taken on the earmarks of a bubble… ”
