You won’t know the bottom until after it has happened. That being said it is still a long way off. We have these stupid threads about if the bottom is just around the corner every month.
I suggest everyone wondering about “botttoms” go read Rich’s primers and take a look at his charts to get and idea of how the typical housing correction runs its course. That also being said, this wasn’t the typical housing boom, it was the largest housing boom in US and probably world history. I suspect it may take longer to correct or to bottom than smaller booms did the in past 40 years. And we are facing even tougher economic problems now than in previous corrections. It will be amazing/miraculous if we can avoid a recession, and a recession will only prolong and amplify any housing crash. Also the inventory levels need to drop DRAMATICALLY before even thinking about the bottom. Inventory will be the best indicator of future housing prices. Right now the massive inventory guarantees lower home prices to come. There is no shortage of housing, there is a huge shortage of qualified buyers. My guess has always been and still is sometime around 2011 or so, obviously this is a guess and I think that if anything, later than that is more likely than sooner.
