“You appear to be implying that the analysis of non-natives is somehow different than the analysis of natives”
That’s what I get too.
Look at it this way. I’m bearish about the Santa Ynez Valley north of Santa Barbara as well and that’s where I grew up. Older houses that were selling for $200-250k back in the late 80’s and early nineties are going for $800+ now.
Buying a house in Santa Barbara County is worse than here.