Why is it when I wrote about this, I was “Chicken Little”? I believe someone said I simply don’t understand Option ARMs, that many people who take them out are sophisticated individuals using them as cash management tools, and I am too extreme and frustrating in suggesting that they are a problem. Now, the press is full of these stories, and the senators are having special hearings on the matter. The difference between my forecast and these media stories is that none of them made a specific forecast for the country or for any city. I am trying to get my hands for some data so I can make more accurate forecasts, but am not hopeful. NOT even the regulators at the Senate Hearing last week had any numbers on the number of Option ARMs out there! The only number they quoted came from a document we’ve all seen, Christopher Cagan’s report.
