While I won’t disagree with your conclusion regarding hard or soft landings, I think your premise about the resiliency of the American economy vs. the Chinese economy is quite a stretch.
Because of the nature of their political system, I think it’s fair to say there is a certain lack of transparency concerning their economy. I don’t think it’s implausible that the damage to their economy from a real estate crash is greater than they may have led people to believe.
I also don’t believe that a high savings rate is the panacea you seem to think it is. A high savings rate did not prevent Japan from experiencing a 15-year deflationary spiral.
Like you, I’m certainly bearish on SD real estate but unlike you, I don’t see this bubble as the precursor to a repeat of the 1930’s.
