While I agree that the lower-end areas have come down significantly, and might present some buying opportunities **based on current rents and economic activity,** we are still just entering a recession and credit contraction (I think we still have a long, long way to go in a deflationary credit market reversal to early 90s, or even early 80s levels). Rents may well go down. That’s deflationary for housing prices.
The “inflation” theory isn’t taking into consideration the buying power of the dollar. Cost inflation is way up, compared to 10 years ago (think about healthcare, housing, education, food, gas, etc.) and wages are pretty stagnant for most of the middle class. This leaves less money for housing costs. At some point, people will wise up and realize the best way to live within your means (and make room for future cost inflation in non-housing expenses) is to get your fixed costs as low as possible…housing being the most significant fixed cost in most budgets.
Additionally, Boomers are nearing retirement years, and will be looking to cash in some of their investments (housing, stocks, etc.) to help sustain their lifestyles, IMO. This will be deflationary.
As others have mentioned before, job stability is a thing of the past, and at some point, people might begin to discount home “ownership” because it ends up being an anchor when you least need it.
Neighborhoods have also changed as a result of the transient nature of today’s families, and you no longer have the nice, clean, safe, middle-class areas that were once prevalent. It’s either very safe, nice and EXPENSIVE; or you get the run-down, multi-family SFHs with dirt front yards and too many cars parked along the street. This is one of the most significant changes I’ve witnessed over the past 10-15 years…rich vs. poor, and no more middle class. As neighborhoods deteriorate further, will people be willing to spend even more for those houses?
