What I am surprised about is seeing the news stories of whole neighborhoods going into either foreclosure or ruin. While we haven’t seen it here in coastal San Diego (possibly in the east counties), it’s coming to some degree. In La Jolla – no way! In Carmel Valley – doubtful… Elsewhere – probably.
In a new neighborhood many of the homes were purchased with the understanding that the prices would rise. Most EVERYONE I have ever met has bought more house than they could afford. My parents did it, hey an – did your parents stretch to buy that house 18 years ago? In the less expensive areas, both the stretch was there as well as the financing options to really overstretch! The people who could afford to buy, or owned in the neighborhood before are seeing every other house with a lawn unkempt, boarded up windows, etc. – it destroys their ability to sell / enjoy their own house which they might have reasonable equity in.
Then comes the crime, etc…
The point is that while I don’t know if there will be a depression / recession, I can count on a recession (not guaranteed, but I think it will happen). We haven’t seen the effect on the economy yet, but it’s in the works.
As to pharmacy – from my recent knowledge, the Pharmacy degree is tough and there aren’t enough pharmacists… On the other hand – I recently sold my company which was Pharmacy Software! So I really know pharmacy and pharmacists. Their profession is under attack and has been for a long time. Gone are the days when people paid cash for prescriptions and with Medicare part-D not even seniors do anymore. Pharmacies used to get a percentage of the drug cost plus a fee. Now they have to finance the inventory, get paid in the future for very expensive drugs at cost plus a tiny fee – the profits are almost gone from pharmacy. Pharmacy techs do most of the work (because they are cheap) and mail order kills the profession. The pharmacist used to be as rich as the town doctor, now pharmacy is a loss leader used to lure people into supermarkets, costco, wallmart, etc. Pharmacists work like dogs, under huge pressure, and now their profits go to Von’s or Rite Aid. The independent pharmacist is gone because a store owner can’t use pharmacy as a lure anymore.
No one is recession proof. I would agree that there will be a HUGE trend toward firing people, downsizing, all to protect the salaries of the top management. Our system is based on screwing the working folks – and our economy has been red hot due to the ability to keep wages stagnant and profits high for the top echelon. When the economy cools off and recedes, it will be the vast majority of the workers who are laid off or replaced by outsourcing – because it is in the best interests of the folks with more money to keep up their lifestyle.
Sorry to be so cynical – that’s why I think we will have a recession…. It will be to protect the owners and the top brass…
