What happens after this wave? There’s no talk about another wave beyond this one. I failed to realize this until now as the excitement on the boards builds about the release of the phantom inventory to the public, what about the third wave, is there one? Will the mouse have passed through the snake already, is there no third wave and the frenzy that will be created because it is the last wave be enough to swallow it? I know everyone will disagree but the stock market usually recovers before markets do and the homebuilders have been on fire. I left thousands on table not acting on my March 6th pick of hovananian (HOV) which hit 7x it’s march low today, so I looked at the others, all up 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x, 6x and 7x from their lows. Lennar, centex, standard pacific, dr horton and hovnanian, the worst you could have done was double your money and at best, lotto style. What do billions of dollars know that we don’t, why are investors picking up national builders from the scrap heap? Do they think that after this wave is sold off that will be the end of it and the surviving builders will feast on the wreckage. It feels like the fix is in, I’m so mad at myself I didn’t see the big picture because I did notice the small picture. The powers that be orchestrated this, the last big batch of repos will hit during the height of the season, with record low interest rates and record tax incentives and released into an inventory starved market, coupled with intense media coverage. Joe six pack is gonna feel like it’s his last and best chance. piggys are supposed to know what joe six pack thinks before he thinks it. I think the power brokers have done a fantastic job, we should have seen it coming, we are smart enough to. While it’s readily apparent that i switched camps, from bear to bull in recent months, I’m afraid I switched too slowly, the bear koolaid was still in my system just enough to scare me, I waited for data and data always comes too late, obi wan would be dissapointed in me. Exactly two months ago I sat in my backyard, drinking a 30 year old port, smoking a macanudo with some buddies and talked about my theories that i need to place my bets before this thing turns around, my tax refund was in an account and I talked about buying a cash flow rental or six carefully selected stocks, Ford was a buck and Hovnanian was fifty one cents. So I just drank and enjoyed the evening and in the end i thought there is more trouble on the horizon, I’ll just stockpile the cash, maybe increase my canned goods and ammo. Genius move on my part, staying behind the curve, so now I’m out sonewhere between 30 and 40k, a mid 1960’s convertable porsche 356 could be completely paid for and in my driveway, but it’s not. I stopped thinking about the amount and caliber of ass i could pull rolling in a sled like that, I’m all cried out, I have no tears left.
So here we are, the phantom inventory is supposed to hit soon, do you have your money ready, do you have pre approval, are you certain as to the location of your testicles. I’m not saying it is your last shot but now that i think about it, I kinda feel it is, it’s what the tea leaves are telling me. many people will constantly remind me in 2010 and 2011 if I’m wrong, but if I’m not and 2009 goes down as the over correction, I’ll ride that horse till she drops, but I’ll always wish I bet on my own advice and i’ll just have to find another way to get that sled. Or I can switch gears from cougar hunting to saber tooth tiger hunting, same hunt, except the prey is more ancient and longer in the tooth.
At least the lakers won and fish put scola on the deck, the earth will still rotate.
