Well I think SD Realtor, as usual, has given you solid advice. And you, individually, have a good sense for what you want and need.
I have many of the same needs as you (young kids, long term roots, etc) and to be frank, my top areas right now remain Fairbanks Ranch and Santaluz. While I have not rulled out other areas yet, these are now the clear front runners. After that I would say Cielo and after that, Digueno Hills, and finally after that, the Crosby. Based on what you said, you would like the Covenant, but also based on what you said, your kids would tire of it as they get older and want to hang out with friends.
Fairbanks Ranch
A few facts. There are 600+ homes in FBR ranging from 2,000-23,000 square feet and valued from $1.5M-$30M, though the average size is 6,000sf and average value just a tick over $3M in this market (the median hangs out around the same #’s). The vast majority of homes in FBR are clustered between 4,000-8,000sf on 1-2 acres. It has a club house and equestrian center, tennis courts, putting greens, a few lakes, and lots of hiking and equestrian trails. Guard gated and they are very strict guards.
I like FBR for the lush mature landscaped neighborhoods and truly unique beautiful and well maintained custom homes. The community has lots of ameneties. You can find a number of homes in FBR for $2.5M that meet your size requirements (4k-5ksf). Believe it or not, people in that area call homes in that size and price range, “starter homes.”
Almost every lot you look at will be 1 acre or larger. Anything under $4M, for the most part, will need updating/remodeling, a project home. I call them project homes and not fixer uppers, because even the homes that have not been updated in FBR since the late 80’s are so well maitained, they are very livable until you put your modern touches on them. Homes are indeed older and most were built in the 80’s-90’s, but the quality is the best I have seen in SD for relatively older homes and compared to the Covenant, where I have seen more vairation in quality.
Your 6 yr olds will go to Solana Santa Fe Elementary school if you live in FBR, which has an entrance from inside the gates if you live in North Gate. North Gate is where all the amenities are as well and probably favord for those reasons. I actually like South Gate a litte more, but that is splitting hairs. So the upside of FBR is the neighborhood. The downside is that you will need to put some money into your home over the years to bring it up to date.
Santaluz
Based on your comments you are likely not to like Santaluz. It is right next to FBR, but could not look more different. But you know, when I started looking I wanted lush tropical landscaping and mature tree lined neighborhoods like FBR. When I first heard of Santaluz I figured I would not like it and seeing it in Zillow and Google maps made me say no to even consdering it. But my agent convinced me to look at it.
The landscaping threw me at first, but after a while it really grew on me and I fully appreciated Santaluz for what it is intended to be, a taste of Tuscany, not South America. Santaluz is going for an open air feeling of expansive gently rolling hills with drought resistant plants and landscaping that does not hide views. Palm trees are hard to find there. I still prefer the whole palm tree overkill, but Santaluz is done so well for what they went for, I like it just as much now.
From a family friendly perspective, Santaluz wins the overall prize in my book. I did indeed see a lot of kids of all ages at both the Hacienda club and golf club complexes. The community was set up for families with kids from the get go. Lots and lots of amenities. In fact, even if I buy in FBR, I will be joining the Santaluz clubs right next door. It costs $$, but worth it IMHO and the most family friendly clubs of any of the gated communities I have seen in the RSF area.
In terms of homes, you can certainly find what you are looking for in your price range. Santaluz has a very broad range in homes, from smaller tract homes under $1M to custom estates for over $10M and an equal range of square footage (2,000sf-10,000+sf). The homes are all very new of course. Build quality is very high in the range I am looking in. The oldest I have looked at is 3 yrs old so you would not need to do any upgrades. Also, those landscaping rules will at least save you money in watering costs.
I am still somewhat in the dark on the schools for my kids there, other than it is the Poway school district, which is well regarded. I think my kids would go to a school in Del Sur just east, which is another gated community more CV like that is part of the Black Mountain Ranch tri-development area.
Mello Roos is indeed a negative, but you already have the right mindset for that. I do the same thing and factor in a Mello Roos discounted cash flow amount into my offer price. HOA fees are reasonable and just a litte more than FBR.
Another downside is that Santaluz is more exposed to the downturn than FBR or RSF in general is. Anywhere where there are developers still putting up new homes will be very exposed to a falling market. Also, the community was built during the peak of the market so you will see more owners underwater and thus more NOD and foreclosure pressure.
However, of the BM Ranch TD areas, Santaluz is the strongest since it is the higher end of the three and owners more able to withstand the bubble burst. Nontheless, compared to FBR or RSF in general, Santaluz has much more exposure in this market. I also note that homes there are overpriced compared to FBR and RSF in general.
For me, I factor all that into my offer prices. In other words, to buy there, you need more patience than in other areas and more price discipline.
Regular poster BobS lives in Santaluz and always provides very useful insider insights, so if he picks up this thread, he can fill in the gaps.
Parting Comments
I note an observation from my own experience. You will find a surprising number of buyers in the under $3M market and expect multiple bid situations in the $2M-$3M range, particularly in FBR. That observation has convinced me to stay in the $3M-$4M market that started as my sweet spot. Lots of people want to get into FBR and there are not than many homes that come up under $3M. Despite the fact that such homes will definately be older and dated, there will be a lot of interest in them just because they are in FBR. The good news is that many of those homes were listing for over $3M just a year or more ago and are priced fairly for this market so less exposed now.
I am not saying FBR won’t continue to drop, but I think less so than Santaluz. You will likely see the same competition pressure in Santaluz, but right now prices are too above market for that in most parts of Santaluz, though you will see competition if a custom or semi-custom hits the market for $2.5M or so.
Overall, seeing multiple bids on a number of homes I made offers on (all of the ones under $3M) was surprising to me and boggles the mind. However, I don’t view that as a market bottom indicator. I view it as either ignorant new buyers or parochial competition to get into certain areas where the entry price is in that range. Entry level price points for various areas always attract more competition. CV has experienced this for years. You will see less competition at above entry level prices in a given area.
I note that at over $4M, so far, I don’t think you get incrementally more house for that incremental $$ you spend, even with new construction, unless it is in FBR and even then, I do the math first on the project home vs. turn key ready.
You can look at my other posts for comments on other areas I have looked in. I note that if I buy in Cielo, I would join the Crosby club right accross the way.
I also note that you may want to look at any homes for sale in Fairbanks Highlands. This is a gated communty of just under 100 homes just east of CV near Carmel Valley Road and not far from Santaluz. It comprises homes in your size and price range. $2.5M will get you over $5k-sf there on a flat usable acre. You get the convenience of CV with the lot size of RSF. The neighborood is pristine and homes well maintained and quite nice. They are model homes based on I think 1/2 dozen floor plans. Listings there are all Caminito Vistana. It would be on my short list if the homes were larger.
I note that I have only been looking in RSF, Santaluz, and the Del Mar/CV areas (over 75 homes now!) and can’t speak for the other areas you mentioned.
Apologies for the length of my response (and mispeltings). Unlike most people on this board, I tend to get diarrhea of the keyboard. But I also get so much out of people’s posts, I feel obliged to provide thoughful insights to the extent I can.
One final parting shot. Your best friends in a market like this are patience, perserverance, and price discipline. To steal a quote “In the battle between the stream and the rock, the stream always wins, not through strength, but through perserverance.” There are a lot of “rock” sellers out there, show up with pleanty of water.
