We know they are a significant portion of the population and it has been discussed especially by sdrealtor and SD realtor when referencing established neighborhoods (SD often laments that his beloved Old Scripps has few distressed properties) and how those neighborhoods have few homes for sale and even less “must sell” inventory. Canyon Lake is easily in that category and will not have many distressed properties because of the demographic and age of the property. Enclaves of old money and older high end custom homes will be the last to fall and will see the least negative effects of the crash but they are not immune. A few months back Bugs wrote an extensive post that I deemed the “real estate butterfly effect” and I think it summed it up perfectly. Regardless of the demographic, all real estate within driving range has an effect of each other. Sure the retired rock stars and sports stars in Canyon lake that own outright will not have to sell but value is set by the market and the buyers and people move up and down between the demographics. If less are moving up than are moving down, fewer investors than divestors we have a basic market force at play. Will the loss of half of the appraised value of one’s home cause them to be homeless, no. But the sheer number of additional units added to the market and the overwhelming number of new cistomers that were added that will soon be removed from that market will (or is) cause a downward snowball that will show no preference to any area other than time frame. And for more on that, search for older posts relating to my own theory “the pain train.”
The other issue is that we have no idea how much money these people took out of their homes in the last five years, in the words of the Oracle “when the tide goes out we will see who’s naked.”
