Wasn’t so worried about Meredith. The datapoint seemed interesting.
I have to admit, I don’t know how many of the 1.5x turn to charge-offs, but after 120 days, I’d guess it is at least 25%. (If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. But I admit I don’t know) 120 days is a long time. So, to me it translates into roughly another year as bad as the last two or three, as such:
Amount of chargeoffs in last 4 years = C.
Avg. amt of chargeoffs in 1 year: C/4 = C1
Amount over 120 days: C * 1.5 = C1 * 4 * 1.5 = 6*C1.
% needed to be as bad as 1 avg year: 16.
Like I said, I’d guess it is over 16%.
I have a feeling I’m about to learn something …
I think it was the 6x figure that jumped out at me. If it is 1.5 x 4, then that’s alot.
