vrudny, you’re right about the 6 yr cycle, however this time is a bit different. The up cycle started in 1997 and peaked around 2002-03 or so after which we should’ve seen prices starting to retreat. Unfortunately the boom was extended by an additional 3 yrs (2003-2006) by introduction of artificial demand caused by exotic loans. I feel that this part of the appreciation (around 30% or so) is pure fluff and will just drop like a rock in the next 2 yrs. as loans reset. I’m very confident that in 2 yrs (2008) we will see much lower prices.