You guys are working with today’s $1.5K, extended through 20 years to get to $600K in 2030 dollars. You need to start by putting away the cost of premium from 1990. There is just no way the combined premiums since 1990 sitting in a vehicle available to general public would lead to $700K in today’s dollars.
You mean adjust for inflation because if I was starting the comparison at 1990, $1500 would be worth more in 1990 than now…
This is why I used S&P500 numbers as well. With the rate adjusted for inflation (approx 2.8% avg), I got about 6.8% ROI from S&P 500, which does give me more than $600k starting at the equivalent 1990 and the equiv $1500 adjusted for inflation. Using backwards CPI adjustment on inflation of 2.8%/yr, I started with $858.26/month adjusting each pay period by inflation and having an ROI of 10.8% not adjusted for inflation: year 20 gave me $808,413.38 with the monthly contrib at year 20 being $1500.[/quote]
No, I was not talking about CPI. Specifically, I had the increase in the cost of health insurance policy in mind. Family premiums doubled between 1996 and 2004. I have no data for 1990-1996 and 2004-2010, but let’s assume the same 9% annual increase. Today, my family plan costs $1,200/month. Back in 1990 the cost was $212/month or $2,544/year.
With the annual 9% increase the total we put aside is $130K.
Cumulative S&P 500 return between 1990 an 2010 is 220%, or 6%/year. Assuming monotonous growth I get $215K in my savings account.
When I look at the last 10 years the numbers are worse.
Unless you are really good with money, and most people are not, or your seed is larger than an average health insurance premium you won’t have the kind of money you are talking about.