Trading in and out lowers your returns because people do it all wrong: they buy when stocks are going up, and sell when they are doing down.
If you do have some knowledge of recessions, and sit them out, you could double your returns, I think. It only makes sense. Financial advisors publish all sorts of charts trying to prove you’re better off staying in, because the mutual funds hate it when they get outflows of capital. Their marketing programs have worked well at convincing people of two stupid ideas: dollar cost averaging (yeah, just keep adding more overpriced stocks), and leaving your money in. I’ve read all those books, too. If anyone can convince me why I should stay in during the upcoming recession, I will consider the thought process. Until then, I’m out until I see the leading economic indicators turn around: wages and consumer spending.