Those last numbers (down about 7% YOY) seems about right.
If you look at the historical prices for San Diego (using the Case/Schiller index), you can make a case that the bottom will be in 2009 or perhaps not until 2012 using a “normal appreciation” of 6% from when the market was fairly valued. The problem is determining at what point the index was fairly priced. Was it 1995? 1998? 2002? I know the market doesn’t go up or down gradually, but if we get 2 more years of 7% declines, the market would be what I consider fairly valued for a 10 year period.
BTW, I thought San Diego was cheap in 2000 and overpriced by 2004 without benefit of any statistics.
