This upswing is different, however. Nobody really knows if there will be a crash or a soft landing. My guess is that there will be a crash of sorts. No hard data, just a hunch. The laws of nature tend to reciprocate and reach equilibrium. If there is a slow and gentle rise, there tends to be a slow and gentle fall. If there is a fast and high rise, perhaps there will be a faster, harder fall.
The levels of inventory seem to boil down to the percentages of different people who are likely to sell and extraneous factors such as interest rates, employment, etc. Maybe we can try to create a breakdown of the percentage of those likely to sell in the next 6 months to 3 years, let’s say. This should include all sellers, even those who bought decades ago (old buyers). Here’s my stab at it:
The Old buyers are those who are at or nearing retirement and are selling to move elsewhere or cash out for money to retire on. Investment buyers are tricky. Some might be willing to wait things out, while others will likely try to cash out before prices go too low…just as they do with stocks. The Unqualified buyers are those who used exotic loan vehicles to purchase b/c they couldn’t do so otherwise. These are the folks who might not be able to afford to ride the market out if interest rates rise or the job market cools down. The Others are those that don’t fall into any of the other categories.
This is just a start and is by no means complete or definitive…it’s just my own guess. Cross-referencing something like this with population and inventory figures (from San Diego and other markets), however, might help us to make a better guess on inventory and prices. Then again, it might just be a waste of time!
PS: Where is a good place to find data on homes? I see some of these posters citing statistics such as the percentage of reduced listings. I’d love to get my hands on this info.
