This is really complicated, at least for my little brain 😉
Both sides are ‘at fault’, although, in the grand scheme of things, it looks like the Russians are fighting a mosquito with a slegdehammer
Georgia first – Saakashvilli was a tool for believeing the West would come to his aid. Maybe this has to do with him being a ‘friend’ of #43 or not. In any case, it was a strategic mistake to go into South Ossetia in the first place.
As for SO – I’ve heard conflicting accounts from both sides as to the casualty numbers – Russians scream about 10 -15 ‘Peacekeepers’ and up to 2,000 civilian casualties.
Georgia admits to a few Peacekeepers and up to 150 civilians. As no independant international agencies have been able to get into Tskhinvali to verify either claim, the jury’s out on who’s ‘fault’ this is.
Both sides are accusing the other of such atrocities as running people over with tanks, throwing grenades in cellars, etc… which kind of makes me think that the real casualty total and responsibilty lies somewhere in the middle.
Russia…? Well the Russians have a history of ‘seeding’ citizens where it needs strategic ground. Look at the Kaliningrad Oblast – formerly a part of Lithuania – to see how successful this kind of ‘grow your own country’ tactic can be. Note that the Kaliningrad area, supposedly ‘Russian’ cuts much of Lithuania off from the Baltic, and handily gives Russia another sea coast…Russia has always needed access to ports in the west.
Anyway, back to musing:
So – I was under the impression that South Ossetia actually wanted to join with North Ossetia and become an independant country. Though, looking at the clusterf&*ck in neighbouring Chechnya, you’d have to wonder if Russia would allow it.
Probably not – no country wants to give up sovereign land – you just have to look to ‘Kurdistan’ or Kashmir to see similar modern day boondoggles.
Same goes for Georgia – despite the ‘independance’ of some of its regions, the borders of Georgia were set by international agreement, and Russia had its say when this happened.
As for the Ossetians themselves – yeah, they’ve never liked the Georgians, and they’re reknowned for being a bloodthirsty lot.
They got a lot of support from Russia, both with citizenship and armament. Take a look at the census records for the last 80 years and you’ll see in the 1920’s there were less than 1000 ethnic Russians in the area, and today there are about 30,000 – a huge spike, whereas native Ossetians and Georgain populations have gone up in line with normal population growth.
As for the justification that SO is ‘Russian’…. well, I sort if feel like a comparable (though ficticious) situation would be if a whole bunch of Canadians went to live in, say, Dafter Michigan and refused to give up thier Canadian passports. Instead of assimilating with the local US population, they insist on seceeding to Canada, despite the international boundary a few miles east.
You can’t deny the fact they’re Canadians politcially, and you can’t deny that they’re in the US geographically. Boondoggle.
And Georgia did itself no favours, either. One the one hand, they know that poking into SO territory is like shoving a toothpick up the rear end of Russia, and that SO has always had a problem playing nicely with its southern neighbour – although one has to wonder if the Ossetians would really be better off in Russia – if what they really want in independace…
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On the other hand, SO lies within the boundaries of Georgia, and the build up of Russian influence is worrying, and you really have to wonder at the speed, capability and ferocity of the Russian invasion – whodathunk that Russia had that much armament just hanging around their southern borders….? Shurley shome mishtake….
As for Abkhazia – I’m ashamed to say that, up until the hostilities started, I’d never heard of it. Though it seems to have enjoyed the same type of Russian influence and aid – with the added benefit of the Caspian/Black Sea pipeline terminus, and yet more prime beachfrontage on the very useful Black Sea…
So, looking at the big picture:
Georgia wanting to join NATO royally pi$$ed off the Russians. Its feeling like its in a vice-grip with former Soviet states either joining the EU, joining NATO or allowing US ‘interests’ like the proposed missile shield to happen in and around their borders.
On the other hand, does Russian really have the moral authority to take over smaller neighbouring countries that it thinks are misbehaving?
Does it really have the right to insist that areas within another nation’s boundaries be given ‘back’ to Russia?
More importantly – can an other country or affiliation of countries do anything about it?
As an ex-EU citizen, its been interesting to see how quiet the EU has been about this… Sarkozy is the head of the EU atm, and as France is the least energy-dependant on gas and oil from Russia – so it makes sense that eh would be the one to go into the lion’s den and try and make peace. But al the other leaders, Brown, Merkel etc… have been vewy qwiet..as much as they’d like to poke Russia in the eye, winter is coming and they don’t have the facility to cut off the Gasprom pipelines without seriously endangering their citizens and leaving them in the cold, literally.
So, Europe is out.
NATO countries are breathing a sigh of relief, as they’re not contractually obligated to come to the aid of Georgia. No one wants to start a land war in Asia…
And the US is toothless. All it can do is mutter and say ‘no fair’.
Like NATO, it doesn’t want to go up against Russian millitarliy, because it simply doesn’t have the wherewithall.
Interesting to note that John McCain hasn’t said diddly about the Iraq war ever since the Georgian conflict started – because even he knows what’s obvious to every other person on the planet: with two wars, the US doesn’t have a standing army to deploy, even if it wanted to.
Despite his bombast, his wish to beat the Russians back is hampered by not being able to.
Anyway, I’m rambling.
Please feel free to jump in and tell me where I’m right and wrong.
