This does not necessarily apply to this thread, but I see a consistent misunderstanding on these many bubble sites between “the market” and “a residence”. I am not the slightest bit interested in buying “the market”. I am interested in buying a residence. The market is an average of the many residences out there right now. The not-so-obvious implication is that, given a large enough sample size, there are residences right now which will not slide any further.
There are numerous ways to estimate a lower bound, I think that you would want to use all methods to see where the price falls
* median house = 3x median salary (If your desired residence is roughly median, use its %-of-median — this would break down for residences far outside the median)
* 150x (or 180x or 225x or whatever factor is appropriate for the area) equivalent rent
* 1.4x of 1997 pricing (or 1.0 of 2001 pricing, and so on)
I think CR has some others.
Also, I was thinkg about trying to find the inflection point for the knife droppers — I have not put a lot of good thought into this so I don’t have an equation yet. 2nd derivative of offer price vs time, multiplied by some factor.
