This board all wrong? No, first of all, most of the arguments presented describe the state of the economy and the risk one is taking when going into one asset class. It is not to forecast something month by month.
Just look at stocks, from May until August they fell, and from August until October they rose. Depending on the Dow or Nasdaq we are roughly back to even. Same with gold but slightly earlier, we had a rally and now we are back down. So one can call both markets flat and discuss what is going to happen longer term.
Me personally wrong? Yes, I admit it I was partially big-time wrong.
I was right on warning about oil and industrial metals when they were high. I was ok on suggesting agricultural commodities since they did okay. I didn’t push gold much when it was high, but below $600 I recommended it. So I was slightly too high, and we will se how it will do going forward.
But where I was really wrong was on bonds. I never expected interest rates to fall so far and expected stronger gold and weaker dollar. I also was wrong in stocks, which I didn’t expect to be so strong the last week. I predicted an end of the rally the end of September, and I took a real beating with my money. So don’t follow my advice in the future. I can still be right on the lending and housing stocks since they are acting weak right now and might not make their May high before they roll over again.
Bottom line: We might not be good in predicting the short-term, but buying stocks or bonds at these prices is quite risky. Not as risky as real-estate, but risky nevertheless historically.
