The vast majority of people won’t even notice a recession. The typical peak-to-trough decline in GDP is about 2%. A year-over-year decline of 3%-4% in traffic at a mall is a financial disaster because retail profit margins are extremely thin. A small change in traffic and spending is the difference between a profit and a loss for many stores. So unless you’re able to monitor changes in traffic/parking/spending using amazing powers of occular regression, you aren’t going to notice when the economy has turned south by spending time at a shopping mall. You might, however, get a feel for things by talking to the managers of the stores because they are seeing a daily P&L.
Yes, the malls are packed. Yes, we’re in a recession. There’s no mystery or contradiction here. It’s the economics of “the margin” which most people can’t grasp.
