“The theory has been described in interesting terms like “statistical fluke,” and “an accident of history.” Unfortunately, there are insufficient observations, given only 43 presidents in our country’s history, to scientifically validate the thesis and satisfy naysayers. Nonetheless, the theory has often been surprisingly accurate, although less so in more recent years.”
The trend I posted is just one factor to analyze along with interest rates, P/E ratios, technical indicators including Dow Theory, etc. Richard Russell the permabear is bullish right now. Bob Brinker, whose newsletter is highly rated over 15 years by Hulbert Financial Digest is neutral to bullish now. P/E ratios are moderate. Overall sentiment is negative. The trend is also positive until Oct. The trend may be a fluke, but I wouldn’t go 100% neg now. My point is that it is not time to panic sell. Be defensive, but not all short.
