The SALT effect on urban California housing is certainly exaggerated. For people in NJ and NY with 3% property tax, they are hurt big way for almost all home owners. But for California, it is much more limited. We have only 1% property tax and many people wrongly claim Mello-Roos as part of property tax deduction in the past.
The SALT restriction mostly affects (assuming 2 income family here):
1) Very high earners like those make $800K or more a year. Those people were able to deduct all SALT expenses in the past without triggering AMT. They had 39.6% normal tax rate, so their effective tax rate before AMT was higher than the AMT rate of 28%. The new law would strip their ability to deduct SALT.
2) Middle middle class stretching themselves to buy homes at 5 – 6 times of their annual income of $120-200K. They were able to deduct all SALT expenses in the past without paying AMT. They have around 15 – 30K worth of SALT expense, but only allow 10K now.
For upper middle class (those make $220-600k annually), SALT restriction has zero effect. Those people were paying AMT tax in the past, so SALT expenses were not allowed anyway. Actually the removing of AMT in those income range in the new tax law tremendously increases their after tax income. This creates a plus factor for housing demand.
For low middle or lower income class, it is unlikely they have SALT above 10K. Even if it is above, it will be by small amount. I know people bought homes 20 years ago locked in low property tax and living on not-so-much income, they may be hurt in other aspect of tax change, but not much with SALT deduction.
