The original article basically puts forth two hypotheses based on the facts that baby boomers are now empty nesters entering retiring age and Gen Y is entering their prime child rearing years. The first hypothesis is that the Boomers will want to sell their suburban homes in the exurbs and move to smaller, easier to maintain places in more central locations. I do know that a lot of older folks like to downsize once their kids have moved out, but I also know there’s a lot of momentum involved. My own mother has decades of junk in her basement and I will be shocked if she ever moves, despite the lure of being closer to grandchildren. Still, the aging boomer population is always demographically relevant and other good threads have been posted here about how boomers cashing out their homes and 401ks might affect the housing market and overall economy.
The second hypothesis is that Gen Y likes the city more than generations before it. I’m not sure I’ve seen statistical information to support a real difference in their attitudes than those of Gen X.
I think suburbanites have always included two groups of people; those who genuinely like the quiet, open spaces and strip malls and those who view it as a compromise, giving up advantages the city provides for better schools, a lower crime rate and lower $/sq ft. Moving to the suburbs can also represent closing the door on our youth, where our priorities were having fun with few real responsibilities.
Bottom line, I think the trends discussed in this article won’t tip the overall price premium for urban and coastal areas too much.
