The NCC areas aren’t going to show as much decline this soon because, like areas such as Scripps and Pt. Loma, a lot of these people consider these to be destination areas.
Nevertheless, it’s hard to predict a trend off a single month’s worth of data. The premise in comparing the medians of any two periods is that we assume that the composition of both datasets are similar. Sometimes thats a reasonable assumption, other times not.
If you look at the first 4 months of 2006 vs. 2007 for all of Carlsbad you’ll see 315 sales in 2006 vs 295 sales in 2007, which comes down to a 7% DECREASE in sales volume. Not equal to the county average, but not exactly stable, either.
If you break the sales data down by price it becomes apparent that the two groups of data have different composition, too. Out of the 315 sales in 2006, 48 of them (15%) were $1,000,000 or higher. But of the 295 sales so far in 2007, 71 sales (24%) are in excess of $1,000,000. Obviously, the higher the number of high-dollar sales, the higher the resulting median of those sales.