The long-term trend suggests we need to return to 850 on the S&P. At best. I don’t think we’ll re-visit the 666 intra-day low from March ’09, but I’d be surprised if we don’t end up somewhere between 700 and 850 at some point over the next couple of years. Given how long we spent above trend over the last 15 years, to only have spent a few months cumulatively below trend over the period seems very unusual. “Normalcy” would be spending at least a few years below trend. And we’ll probably see that at some point.
