The last “unobstructable view” lot I know of that sold in Carlsbad (across the street from the stairs at Terramar) sold for $1,500,000 back in 11/2005; and it’s now a pending after being listed for $2,400,000. It was about 10,000 SqFt but was only good for a single family residence. There are several parcels up on the east side of Pacific Ave in Oceanside that have sold in the $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 – most of those are underimproved and purchased for site value.
I don’t know what the deal is with the parcel you’re talking about, but I do know there are serious problems getting water on the east side of the Scenic Highway in some areas, and sewer or septic is a problem as well. I also know you’re not going to get a 40-unit tower on a 32,000 SqFt lot, much less the additional row houses. This might be part of a larger parcel or you might have your numbers mixed up.
A lot can happen between purchase and completion of construction down there. I know of a residential subdivision that’s been completely built out but can’t be inhabited until they buy their water rights. Dumb gringos.
I wouldn’t want to be in the development business down there right now. Baja Norte’s RE markets have been distorted by California’s bubble and they’re falling even faster than we are because the money isnt flowing down there the way it was when times were good. I anticipate a lot of the second home purchases down there are going to get resold at whatever the market will bear. Some of the money that went to Mexico during this last run up is going to end up staying there.