The investors purchasing now are jumping the gun.
For the past 6-7 years I’ve owned a SFR rental in SD. Every few months I look at the market and run the numbers. Last time it made sense was in early 2003 for SFRs.
I agree that condos may appear to get to break-even cash flow first, but the HOA fees and the lack of control over supplemental HOA assessments for unforeseen maintenance and repairs means that the positive cash flow on paper is less likely to happen in reality.
IMO we still have another 10-20% downside for central SD SFRs (don’t know about other areas) before investing starts to make sense … to me.