The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index registered 49.3 last month, down from a December reading of 51.4. A reading below 50 indicates that manufacturing activity is contracting rather than expanding.
This is generally flat. According to the ISM, the turning point for the economy has historically been when the manufacturing index drops below 45. At 49.3 the reading shows a slight contraction. Also, manufacturing represents less than 1/3 of the economy. Recently the service sector has more than made up for this contraction. There needs to be weakness across both sectors before a recession occurs. This has been slow to develop, thus far.
