The housing decline will almost certainly lead to a recession:
from http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2005/6/24/115349.shtml
“The International Monetary Fund analyzed home prices in a number of countries from 1970 to 2001, and found 20 “busts” – when real prices fell by almost 30 percent. All but one of those busts led to a recession.”
“Japanese property prices have fallen for 14 years in a row, by 40 percent from their peak in 1991, and consumer spending has been weak, leading The Economist to conclude, “Americans who believe that house prices can only go up and pose no risk to their economy would be well advised to look overseas.””
