The day of the original post, the S&P 500 closed at 1301.78.
The actual call was S&P to hit 600 by Spring ’07, not a percentage drop from some future peak. It’s right there in the title. After yesterday’s bloodbath, the S&P 500 was up 7.5% from the date of the original post.
I still think there is plenty of downside risk in stocks. However, the notion that an 50%+ drop in the HMI equals a 50%+ drop in stocks based on a correlation study is both mathematically incorrect and naive.
