The bottle neck for the most part is probably happening before NOD. How long do people sit in a home before NOD? How many job losses have we had over the past year? How many are still sitting in their home, waiting? Most people that went into distress mode over the past 6-12 months and have not received and NOD. When a bank is not in a rush to take back a home for balance sheet purposes and homeowner is not in rush to move because of free rent you get a bottle neck of unabsorbed properties.
Considering the bulk of economic pain happened over the past 12 months and all the delay tactics of banks and borrowers, the downward pressure wont be recognized until the next 12 months.
All the pain from 2009 probably has not been recognized by the market and is in some level of processing.
