that’s not going to happen. NO WAY will those 800k houses be selling for 200k. sorry.
do you live or work in temecula? i get the impression that some piggingtonions think that Temecula is some bastard stepchild of San Diego. a lot of commuters live up here… but temecula is not the same as it was 10 years ago..not even 5 years ago.. thre are a lot of people living here who work locally, or very close by.
i dont’ think you’ll see 50% of temecula leave just b/c gas prices go up and SD is a bit cheaper. every drop in prices in SD will have a corresponding drop in temecula… and temecula will probably always be cheaper than SD.
ten years ago I knew people moving AWAY from San Diego to temecua – to get more bang for their buck. there will always be people who want a bigger house, a bigger yard, etc and will commute to get it.
they can spend 400-500k and have a house that costs them 750-800 in SD…. and if that house falls to 400-500 in SD it will be 300-400 in Temecula..or less…
bottom line – you get more for your money in Temecula. and ther ewill always be peple willing to commute to get it. they were doing it a decade ago when temecula first started growing. it only accelerated b/c san diego got SO expensvie that a lot of people were unable to buy at all in SD…. some of those people may move back…but nto all of them.
i see prices falling across the board…but i don’t see the bottom faling out overnight.
things will slow down. prices will continue to drop and sag bit by bit. builders will keep lowering prices, or upping incentives. if rates stay low enough, people will still be able to pay the high prices…and the builders will tease with more upgrades, more bling….heck, maybe they’ll start adding pools… who knows..
i still think if you look at where prices were before the massive takeoff took place..and then you trend upward at 2-3%/year… you wind up at where prices should stabilize at.
to say an 800k hosue will sell fro 200k is nonsense. have youb een inside of an 800k house in Tem or Murrieta? 800k is going to get you a 4000 sq ft home nestled high up on the hill in GReer Ranch with spectacular views of the city below, gated community, community pool/spa, and every conceivable upgrade in your house… it probably cost more than $200k to build…. and if you listed it for $200k you’d have people lining up to buy it at that price…
incomes aren’t going down. the prices are coming down b/c the massive inflation of home prices has stopped..so the investors are leaving, and the flippers are leaving, and the demand is dropping. financing tightened up and the pool of buyers has shrunk. so less people buying, less peple who CAN buy..and more inventory..so prices go down.
but they won’t go down to zero. you think people will just give houses away??? free houses!! just pick up the keys!!
houss in temecula were selling in the high 100s and low 200s before the bubble hit..and if you look at a lot of those houses..they were small, unfixed up. starter type homes. they werne’t the mcmansions with pools, granite, extensive flooring, etc… as temecula got more “acceptable” as a place to live, you saw more houses go in that were already “fixed up” and priced higher… that trend just kept increasing utnil you had the mcmansions going in all over…
i still think that the average house in temecula – gives you way more bang for your buck than SD. you will be commuting if you work in SD..but not everyone in Temecula commutes.
i work locally. my next door neighbor works in north county san diego and has a minimal commute. my other next door neighbors both work locally – both in the health care industry..another neighbor is in local law enforcement… i’m sure some commute…but to say EVERONE in temecula is no the freeway half the day is wrong.
temecula is by NO MEANS a self sufficient city with a vibrant economy…it is a giant suburb of SD…but i don’t think you can say that it’s goign to fall apart b/c gas prices go up and SD prices drop…
