Thank you so much for posting this article… I’ve been only recently reading about RP and didn’t know he existed until 2 weeks ago. This interview actually helped me understand the difference between TBills and TBonds ( I think the first is sort of a cashiers check for dollars and the other is debt! ) and also his views of the future express the path I think we are heading for as well.
As to the comment by someone that his market timing has been bad, I disagree from what I’ve seen so far. Our markets are so volatile that all the gains he didn’t see have been and can be wiped out in a week. He missed some big runs up, which are somewhat already wiped out, we are back at 2002 levels now (I believe from what I’ve seen). I’m amazed at the volatility of everything, and I’m not getting enough return (even in my bond funds) for the interest to be worth the risk…
I’m going cash and cash equivalents and I’m taking a 10-15% position (maybe more, but I’m going to be safe and not risk the volatility) by being in the double shorts… I own GLD and am going to sell it immediately, I broke even on it (only have owned it for a few weeks) – I don’t think my hedge against a catastrophe in the markets will hold up if they don’t own every ounce of the actual gold.
Also – my guess on your disagreements with RP about printing presses and inflation are somewhat more on his side – I don’t think we can print enough money to fix anything or cause inflation, because when you let the steam out of all the assets in the world (1.5M dollar houses in middle class neighborhoods which are now 1.1, but really .9 and will be .3M!!!!) you can’t replace the debt that these assets carry and they get written off…. Imagine that all mortgages are worth 1/5th of their actual value, not only don’t they get paid on but that part of the money supply gets removed (effectively), you can’t print enough to keep it stable and we are already seeing these signs… (just my opinion and I’m no expert)…
Anyway – I’ll tighten the belt a bit, create safe harbors for my cash, ride it out and be in an incredibly good position 2-10 years from now, unfortunately though in opposition to my friends and neighbors (but not at their expense thanks goodness)…
