I do have access to the MLS. I am a RE Broker but not active in the business. I lived in O.C. during the 1989-1995 downturn and kept an eye on Temecula. I heard lots from relatives and friends in the business out here in Temecula. I am fiscally conservative (because I’m also a CPA) and although I hesitate to give an opinion, here goes:
In no way do I think that prices will revert to a level where the average house price is $200K in Temecula. FYI, that 200K price point was average in late 2000/early 2001 for an 1800 sq. ft. 3/2. I think the less nice or more desperately needing to be sold houses you have listed in Fairway Classics could hit 300K at the trough, which is about what they sold for in 2003. I think there will be some form of government bailout to prevent the entire U.S. housing market from crashing. In a way that’s too bad for those of us who played by the rules and with integrity, but on the other hand if there’s a severe crash we will all be affected financially…kiss your 401K goodbye!
Remember that the average price now is based on a substantially larger house than in 2000. And remember that prices for the exact same house within a tract will vary due to amenities. No matter how much we laugh about “pergranteel”, buyers will pay more for a more luxurious home. What do you prefer, builder white 4 x 4 tile, or verde butterfly granite?
Regarding the houses you listed: I do the best I can on the MLS to ascertain indebtedness. The total loans can be difficult to decipher. I would know 100% accurately if I ordered a broker’s package from the title company. I’ve gotten pretty good at sifting through and getting the numbers. On some, I think a non-exercised Heloc may cause it to look like there is indebtedness in excess of the asking price.
33288 Alagon – 174 DOM, first sold 12/22/03 @ $318,500, current indebtedness is $402,500, asking $445,000.
45269 Almora – 97 DOM, first sold 03/23/04 @ $321,000, last mortgage total was $495,000, lender took back at $421,676 (probably just the 1st), vacant, asking $429,000.
45260 Escalon – 83 DOM, first sold 10/20/03 @ $288,000, current indebtedness is $451,600, asking 425,000.
33312 Alagon – 86 DOM, first sold 12/24/03 @ $296,000, current indebtedness is $260,000, vacant, asking $414,000.
45337 Escalon – 119 DOM, can’t get first sold price, Lender owned First Franklin Tenancy by Entireties & transferred at $389,581, last mortgage prior to foreclosure was $460,000, asking $403,900.
I think if you wait a year or two you will have lots more choices in the $300-350K range. I don’t think you should buy yet. I also don’t think Temecula will be as brutally affected as other areas in the I.E.
Now the rest of you Piggington people, please don’t roast me for my opinion!
And this P.S. to the Harveston guy – you are suffering from “analysis paralysis” and lack of cash. Don’t buy yet – rent for $1400K and if your landlord sells it, rent somewhere else in Harveston. Frankly, if you don’t have the downpayment, you shouldn’t buy! Save your money and wait until you can afford to buy.
