Sure Cramer has some good instincts sometimes, but he is also often wrong. Most of his reasons sound pretty ridiculous, like #1,#4,#6,#7. And if house prices come more in line with history, i.e. drop for a few more years, then even #5,#8,#9, and #10 don’t mean anything. A bounce is certainly accepted, but usually bubbles and vertically performing stocks come ultimately back to where they broke out, i.e. 2001 prices. For TOL I think that was a $10 price. Taking just 2003 earnings with a P/E of 10 would be a $17 price, which wouldn’t be unrealistic either. But a lot higher than $27.5, no way, IMHO.
