“Inflation has been very mild the entire time. Higher rates, if in the cards, certainly isn’t going to cause inflation.”
I think that our entire outlook on interest rates is pre-global. As Japan and the US have demonstrated in recent years, in global environments low interest rates encourage investment outflow. Not all, but a lot of money goes to work in the areas (countries, in this example) with the best risk/reward, so money flows to countries with perceived low risk and higher interest rates.
Over the past few years we’ve had massive monetary inflation. This hasn’t yet translated into price inflation as capital has largely flowed elsewhere.
Our low interest rates have in effect acted to export a large portion of our monetary inflation to become price inflation in other countries. When interest rates rise, capital previously directed elsewhere will return. I believe we will see price inflation coincident with rising interest rates.
Of course, this belief is contrary to common opinion and 100 years of Fed policy. And comes from a certifiable idiot to boot. So take of it what you will.
To loop this back to the topic, if my theory holds true, the time to invest in silver (and other metals) will be when interest rates start rising. When that will be I have no idea.
