So was 900 a “lower high”?
Moreover, is the “reflation” trade once again the “deflation” trade?
I cannot believe I’m going to respond to this.
Look, sure we are all guessing. You analyze the news and the markets and make your best guess.
Since Nov 12th, the S&P500 clearly had established a ceiling (on fool’s rallies) of 900, and when rallies hit 900 they sharply retreated.
Until this week, where the S&P500 didn’t pull sharply off 900, but instead traded flat, managing to stay above 880…even in the face of several bad news items this week…
So we thought this bitch was forming some kind of support at 900, to make a run on up to 1000 or 1050.
But that theory kinda got shot today when markets sliced down through 880.
Keep in mind this is all just guessing and speculation about what number this current fool’s rally will reach, to try and sqeeze a few more percent out of the rally, before we go short.
As for the overall S&P500 trend for the next six months, we need not guess about that: we KNOW it will go much lower than these levels. So one could argue it is just best to stop stalling and just get on the short side of this rally.
I will assume your “reflation” remark is about oil. Yeah, I think that OPEC will not have much success (beyond what we’ve seen in last ten days) in reflating the price of oil, meaning that I am GUESSING that *whatever* value OPEC manages to lift oil prices back up in next few weeks, it will NOT hold, and will pull back to at least $40/bbl.
But all these random guesses (and hot air) should not distract us from the Big Long-Term Themes.
Oil will be over $200/bbl within five years. Count on it. Unless the WORLD is still in economic recession five years from now, but even a die-hard pessimist like me doesn’t anticipate THAT.
The point is that these are ridiculously low prices for oil stocks. Maybe I should shut up and stop speculating about selling them over some trivial pull-back to $40/bbl that might (or might not happen) in the short-term.
So then focus on holding (for at least five years) these stocks and view any near-term pullback on oil price as a chance to double-down buying more oil stocks.
