So John Q Public will not know officially about the turnaround in the market for about 1-2 years after it has happened.
I can’t disagree with any of your analysis and commentary, but I’m not so sure about the particular quote above.
During the last couple of years, the NAR had an incentive to rely on the misleading median figure, as it kept the market and the speculation going as prices looked to be rising still. However, if/when your theory pans out (which I think it will, BTW) then the NAR may suddenly have a revelation! “Wait”, they’ll say, “the median is misleading, and this is why!”.
It will be in their interests to be able to demonstrate to the public that things are picking up and that “it’s a good time to buy”. The media just echos what they say anyway, and so I see no reason why they won’t do so this time. They’re in real-estate after all – they’re the EXPERTS!
I’m wondering if anyone who remembers the last SoCal real estate pop could help out here? I’m assuming that the recovery will probably be similar. What did the NAR say at the time? Was the median still going down while the recovery was actually in the early stages of the recovery?
