Since only you know both companies and have all the info, it’s going to be real tough to know what’s best for anyone (even you included).
One thing to also think about is that the “new” company ALWAYS looks better than your current place. It’s just like that hot chick you see where who can ever assume she’s actually a psycho? You also know ALL the bad things at your current place and it’s easy to feel the grass is greener on the other side.
Anyhow, food for thought, I actually know someone who just left his stable tech job of 10+ years in SD and moved to a smaller place, and is now, moving BACK to the old position now. Not sure what happened since I haven’t talked to him in a bit, but will ask when I see him.
Since we live in our own worlds and see what we want to see, one thing to look hard at is if the new place is “really” that great. To me, that’s not possible, but since it’s already public, I’m guessing the instant millions is passed so it’s mostly a type of work, balance comparison.
It sounds like the current place is a dead end long term as most acquired companies are, but the new place (being already public) to me also means that if their valuation is insane now like most other companies, may have limited upside as well and may collapse faster.
I used to do this a ton during the crazed startup days in the 90s with some of my friends/co-workers for hours and hundreds of emails back and forth. One thing I’ve noticed in my decisions (which was probably wrong most of the time) is it seems like luck plays the biggest factor of all so rolling a dice seems just as good. Money is never that different IMO (unless it’s private).
Another thing, I noticed at the company I worked at and left, some of the people who were still there will their management help are now all VPs, Directors, CIOs, etc…so staying also opens up a lot of promotions and opportunities as well since “someone” still has to man the place. If you’re connected in your current place, that someone could be you and that could lead to higher positions in the future as well.
The KEY thing I think to getting ahead is it’s critical who your manager is or who you think will HELP you get further and higher in your career (remember, the networking part)….
Your CURRENT manager is under the same gun as you at your current place so he or she is probably looking as well…If you’re close, you can ask what they plan to do. Downside of course is San Diego is so small probably for tech vs. the bay area.
I know if I left my last startup and went with an old manager to Apple (sure I would’ve gotten hired), I’d definitely be a millionaire now a few times over.
Good luck with your choice, but I think going where you think the best manager or person looking out for you will be the “win” choice.
I did regret going to some startup due to mostly greed, but in the IPO game, luck plays a bigger role than most regular jobs.
