“Second, there is one single piece of information that this board believes in and that is different from the mainstream perception. This one piece is housing and credit.”
RSeiser, as a buy-side analyst I have literally seen dozens of presentations over the last 2 years about what a housing slump means to the US and global banking systems. If you can believe it, Wall Street is even more obsessed with this issue than readers of this site!
My point is that investors have long anticipated a housing slowdown and have quantified the impacts that it will have on the economy and the banking / credit system here in the US and around the world. And yes, a lot of investors anticipate a real crash in housing prices, much worse than what we’re seeing in S.D. to date.
In other words, the generally pessimistic views on housing expressed by most visitors to this site are the CONSENSUS views of investors around the country and indeed around the globe.
Clearly, these views are not shared by a lot of real estate market participants here in S.D. (realtors, developers, people who bought at just about any point in the last 24 months…), who will have their asses handed to them as prices roll over.
