Below is an example had sitting around on my PC. I have been tracking the median price since shortly after I purchased in SD in 2Q 1996. Admittedly not the best indicator, but it is what I started tracking in my youth as a new homeowner.
I’m sure this is full of flaws, but it illustrates that the seasonal cycle can be quite strong. This chart shows the average monthly increase for the PRECEEDING 6 month period. Averaged over the last 7 years. TO interpret: The average percentage monhtly increase from Jan-June has been approximately 2% per month during this boom (cumulative 12% over the first half of the year). However, prices were flat over roughly the last half of the year ( ~ 1/2% per month or cumulative ~3%).
I would suspect that other indicators will have similar cycles that make it more difficult to identify the long-term trend from seasonal trend.
[img_assist|nid=1217|title=seasonal trend – Central San Diego|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]
