sdrebear,
I disagree. Expectations and risk are completely different terms, especially when applied to economic/financial analysis.
If you have an investment with a 75% chance of yielding a 10% return, and a 25% chance of yielding a -10% return, your expected return is 5%. You are at risk of losing 10%.
In your street light example, you are at risk of being stopped at 10 lights. Your only expect to get stopped at 3 of them.
From Dictionary.com:
risk /rɪsk/
–noun
1. exposure to the chance of injury or loss; a hazard or dangerous chance: It’s not worth the risk.
