[quote=sdrealtor]I think we are all pretty much in concensus that there is another leg down. Where we differ is how big and how quickly it will happen. That being said most seem to agree that the low end may have bounced off its bottom, that the middle is getting close and that the high end has plenty of work ahead.[/quote]
I don’t think we will go significantly below the lows set in Spring 2009 on aggregate in San Diego.
Aggregate San Diego prices have already gone up by 10%. I could see retesting those lows at some point over the next year or two, but don;t think we will go much below those levels.
Part of the reason is that during the spring the market was very skewed (perhaps artificially) towards the low end. The other reasons are based on long-term fundamental relationships between costs of ownership and costs of rent. Affordability is a a multi-decade high in San Diego.
Of course there are plenty of wild cards that will make it different this time, such as the dollar decline, jobs never coming back, etc. But I wouldn’t be too surprised if over the next 3 years prices are within +/- 10% of where they stood in July 2009.
Oh yeah, I almost forget the real reason that I think we hit bottom is because I called it here 😉
