[quote=sdrealtor]Cmon I know how much time you put into this and would not be surprised at all. I neverf said large custom homes with large lots no HOA or Mello Roos were inferior to tract homes. I specifically called out that property and the lot is not great at all. I also compared it to Olivenhain customs not tract homes so you are barking up the wrong tree here.
I would agree that the market for high end is soft but that softness doesnt start until at least $1.3M and more accurately around $1.5M. Below that there is ample demand to soak up everything and when desirable homes above that range drop there are hoards of buyers waiting. I just ran some stats for a client that makes you look like a bull.
Do you realize that on average in Encinitas/South Carlsbad there is a closing EVERY DAY between $800K and $1.2M? When you look at pendings and contingents you see stats that indicate those numbers would be closer to 2 closings every day if there was good inventory priced at current market levels in that range.[/quote]
Yes, that property had the nearby power lines and a sloping lot going against it, but those things were there when it sold for ~$1.3 in 2002 as well. You’ve said that the area there on the hillside is problematic, not just the one house. Even if many of the people who buy/live there are retired or buying them as second homes, aren’t those exactly the types of buyers the bulls have been pointing to as the impetus for rising prices going forward? And even you have to admit that it’s not “poor” people buying those large, oceanview homes as second homes.
Yes, there are expensive homes selling here every day. But are there enough buyers to prop up every home in every area where hopeful sellers/owners think they are sitting on goldmines? That is where you and I see things differently, IMHO.
I also have serious doubts as to how long the trend will last if interest rates rise. Not only do low rates make higher prices more affordable, they disincentivize saving and investing in (esp. in fixed income). Low rates effectively squeeze people out of their cash positions, and this is why you’re seeing so much interest in RE investing right now, IMHO.
